The commitment to the Free trade It is based on the competitive advantage that gives nations to have certain scarce material and human resources in others. The exchange of merchandise under the umbrella of free trade results in a global benefit, since it promotes the economic growth of the countries, improves the quality of the goods and diversifies the offer.
The doctrine of free trade that has governed international trade in recent decades opposes the protectionismwhich seeks to favor national producers of foreigners’ competition.
First of all, protectionism
The Trump campaign to obtain votes from the sectors Automotive and agrarian Americans were based on an ultranza protectionism – which we could call Trump doctrine– Based on the promise of tariff rise to the products of competitors.
The rise in tariffs to promote national production in non -competitive sectors collides with the rules of the World Trade Organization and commercial relations already established with exporting countries.
On the other hand, those who suffer silently Trump’s protectionist measures are US consumers, who will have to pay higher prices for imported products that are now cheaper.
The need to reorganize international commercial flows for the existence of dumping ecological, social or economic. Faced with the violation of the rules of competition and the existence of discriminatory situations, agricultural groups have demanded mirror clauses so that imported products comply with the same regulations as nationals. But all these proposals have been made within a negotiating frame and not in a disruptive and unilateral way, as the Trump doctrine.
Tariff ups
Concretely, USA has formalized A 25 % tariff on steel and aluminum from other countries that will enter into force on March 4. This affects the Spanish industrial sector, which exports aluminum for 500 million to the US market.
There is still no detail of what Spanish agri -food products (wines, oils, meat and dairy, among others) they can be affected and to what extent by the Trump doctrine. Also Latin American countries They are at risk: In 2021, 86 %of its agri -food exports were allocated to three regions, USA (23 %), EU (18 %) and China (13 %). The EU and Latin American countries belonging to Mercosur They have the advantage of having signed, in December 2024, an agreement that will allow them to strengthen their commercial relations and perhaps with that compensate for losses in the US market.
Given these tariff attacks, countries have reacted trying agreements among affected countries. The European Union and Canada have gathered to design a joint strategy before the Trump doctrine and China also raises to reorganize its commercial flows, which can be a certain relief for its exports.
However, the damage caused by tariffs is global and does not only affect export countries. In the United States there will be negative impacts for consumers and users in the form of increasing and even scarcity and disappearance of some imported products.
United States-Europa Commercial Relations
There is no free trade agreement between Europe and the United States, although it was tried to establish, without success, the Transatlantic Association of Commerce and Investment (Transatlantic Trade and Investment PartnershipTtip). Instead, there are advances in harmonization in food safety regulations, quality standards and data privacy.
However, Trump accuses Europe of “Treat the United States very bad“And he warned that they must balance the”350 billion dollars”Deficit of its trade balance.
In Europe, the sectors most exposed to American protectionist threat They are aeronautical, automaker and agri -food. And the most risky countries, Germany (automotive), France (aeronautical), the Netherlands (petrochemical), Italy (pharmaceutical), Ireland (technological) and Spain (agri -food), having the most open economies to foreign trade.
For its part, the United States exports to Europe high -tech products, machinery, chemicals and agrarian (corn, soybeans, meat). In the digital sector, large American companies (Amazon, Google, Apple, Meta) are well positioned in the old continent, even with dominant position abuses that the EU has tried to correct By fines for companies and Legislative changes.
Spanish exports to the United States focus on cars, machinery and pharmaceutical and agri -food products (wines, oils, meats, dairy and fruit and fruit and fruit products. American imports to the Spanish market are essentially electronic, pharmaceutical, financial and agricultural products.
UU. Has invested in Spain in the automotive, technological, energy, distribution and financing sectors. Spain, in turn, is present in the North American market in the distribution sector (Inditex, Mango), renewable energy (Iberdrola, Actiona, Naturgy), communications and infrastructure (Ferrovial, ACS, Sacyr).
The technological battle
In the horizon there is a high competition in the development of space travel, military technology and integrated artificial intelligence. In the geopolitical scenario, development cooperation, war conflicts, climate change and environmental sustainability are issues to consider.
We have just seen how the restrictions in the supply of microprocessors stimulated Chinese creativity in the technological area. China received the new year with Deepseekits own model of AI – with benefits similar to those of Chatgpt and notoriously lower costs – that has convulsed the US technological sector and has caused a stock market cataclysm.
Meanwhile, the EU is now trying to shake the role of spectator in the development of these new technologies and has just announced that it will invest 200 billion euros in The development of European AI. Do not forget that Europe has been a pioneer in its legislative aspects, with The Law on Artificial Intelligence approved in its Parliament in late 2023.
Perspectives and solutions
The impact of commercial wars depends, on the one hand, on the imposed measures (tariff, fiscal or regulatory) and the volume of existing commercial flows. But the characteristics of the regions, economic sectors and affected social groups also influence.
In it Discount time For the start of the application of new tariffs, the United States reached a principle according to Mexico and Canadapauses one month before applying the announced tariffs. In the case of China, his response to the American threat was to announce that he would apply similar tariff increases To American products.
Among European countries there are differentiated strategic moves before the Trump doctrine. Axes positions Paris-Berlin –It is responsible for responding to the tariff threats of the USA. It will be necessary to see if the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was present in Trump’s possession on January 20, can play the role of intermediary between the EU and the US An advantageous position for Italy.
Volatility, uncertainty, fluctuations
A commercial war affects foreign investments and causes volatility in financial markets due to the uncertainty it generates. In addition, it reduces commercial exchanges (imports-export) and causes fluctuations in currency markets. The dilemma “restructuring or rejection” caused by the Trump doctrine It contemplates the options to readjust the existing order or enter to compete.
At the moment there are the swords up and The Wall Street Journalone of the great American media, talks about a “absurd” commercial war, “unnecessary” and “stupid”.
The truth is that an environment of international insecurity has been created in future investments and stock exchanges have suffered losses. Meanwhile, threatened countries claim that they will be respected by applying countermeasures, to which Trump replies that tariffs will rise more.
