The virtual president-elect of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaumhas chosen to assure that he will wait to see who wins the November elections, but has announced that Mexico will ask for equal treatment.
“We will have to work with the government that will be in power at the end of January, which is when it would come in… to work on issues that have to do with security, that have to do with drug trafficking, but also with arms trafficking to Mexico. And this vision that President López Obrador generated of not subordination, but treatment among equalsin changing the Mérida Agreement for a bicentennial treaty, with a Bicentennial Agreement,” he proposed on Wednesday, July 24.
Allies in the United States
Given the radical nature of Trump’s speech, experts believe that Mexico needs to have good interlocutors to negotiate with the eventual government, among them, Marcelo Ebrardfuture Secretary of Economy, and Juan Ramon de la Fuenteappointed as Secretary of Foreign Affairs.
“We need to establish allies in the United States that will allow us to negotiate in a much more forceful manner with the eventual Trump administration. We need to build allies. “It is important to review and begin to establish better relations with legislators and in general also with groups in the United States that have an interest in Mexico and in trade relations with Mexico,” says Juan Manuel Ortega.
The first impact of the “Trump effect” against Mexico came this week, when the CEO of Tesla, Elon Musksaid It makes no sense to invest in Mexico if the Republican candidate wins and imposes heavy tariffs on vehicles produced in Mexico.
“I think we should wait and see what happens in the elections. Trump has promised tariffs on vehicles produced in Mexico. If that happens, it would make no sense to make a significant investment in the country,” said the owner of the X platform, who a year ago had announced the construction of a Tesla gigafactory in Santa Catarina, Nuevo León and an investment of 5 billion dollars.
The announcement comes just days after the Republican Convention, where Trump spoke of his intention to impose tariffs and criticized large car factories that are planned to be built in the country.
“The factories that are built on the border with Mexico will return to the United States,” he said.
Migration as an ally
One of the “chips” that Mexico has to negotiate the management of migration. Mexico is an expelling and transit country for migrants who intend to reach the United States. That nation needs the Mexican government to contain the flow that only showed a reduction with the covid-19 pandemic and the closure of the border, but that has had an upward trend and the establishment of records in encounters with migrants.
According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Office (CBP), a new record of encounters with migrants on the border with Mexico was recorded in 2023: 2.4 million.
Since Mexico is key in immigration control, the next president will have to ask the eventual Republican government to finance the stay of migrants in Mexican territory.
“The Mexican government will have to take note of two things: with what means will it assist these people? What will it ask or demand of the United States so that together they can finance the stay of these people?” Urbano said.
