The four measurements published by the duty within the framework of the project I choose, within the margin of error, the closed dispute between Tuto Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina. The trend was finally confirmed at the polls, including the sustained ascent – also reflected in the four probabilistic measurements of this multimedia group – by Rodrigo Paz.
Samuel’s evolution
Samuel Doria Medina started as a favorite in the first survey, released on June 18, with 24.02% compared to 22.07% of Quiroga. However, in the second measurement, published on July 16, it descended up to 21.76%, although it still remained up for just over one point. On August 1 he experienced a rebound that led him to 24.5%, momentarily recovering the leadership in intention to vote.
The final blow came with the results of the rapid count of August 17: Samuel collapsed to 19.6% and was relegated to third place, outside the second round.
The rise of tuto
Jorge Quiroga always remained in the strip from 20% to 23% during surveys, with minor ups and downs, but without losing competitiveness. In the first survey it marked 22.07%, in the second it fell to 20.70%, and in the third rose to 23.5%.
Finally, the rapid count of August 17 gave him 27.2%, a significant growth that assured him second place and his pass to the ballot against Rodrigo Paz.
The surprise of peace
The most striking case was Rodrigo Paz. In the first June 18 survey, it barely appeared with 8.5%, in the second, of July 16, it rose to 12.3%. For August 1 it reached 16.8%, consolidating an upward trend.
On August 17, with the fast counting data, he made the largest jump: 31.7% of the valid votes, becoming the most voted candidate of the first round and the main protagonist of the election day.
Precision within the range
The behavior of the three main candidates confirms the statistical validity of El Dute surveys. With a margin of error of ± 1% nationwide, the measurements not only reflected the technical tie between Samuel and Tuto, but also anticipated the probability that a third party – in this case Rodrigo Paz – capitalized the citizen vote in the final stretch, according to the probabilistic analysis presented this Sunday.
The electorate ended up punishing Doria Medina, rewarding the sustained rebound of Quiroga and consolidating the surprise ascent of peace. The reading left by the surveys is that the opinion studies were within the rank of probabilities that ended up confirming with the results of the fast counting, which now project a second historical round.
