Economists warn that for the following year, these adjustments and tariffs will be factors that will pressure the rise in consumer prices.
However, the head of the Treasury ruled out this scenario. “I must emphasize that there is no increase in taxes, there are the retention factors, the issue of the IEPS. We would hope that supply and demand compensate for the final effect on prices, and adapt to the path expected by monetary policy, we do not see a significant impact on the National Consumer Price Index,” he commented at a press conference.
For example, “due to tariffs, the expected impact on inflation does not exceed three tenths of a percentage point, it would be between 0.2% and 0.3% at a time,” the official added.
By 2026, Mexico will apply tariffs of between 10 and 50% to more than 16% of its imports from countries with which it does not have trade agreements, such as China. Among the sectors involved, the automotive, textile, clothing, toys, furniture and footwear sectors stand out, among others.
Likewise, the IEPS quota, focused on discouraging consumption, for soft drinks with sugars will go from 1.64 pesos per liter to 3.08 pesos per liter, and with sweeteners from zero to 1.5 pesos per liter, while the tax on tobacco will go from 160% ad valorem to 200%, and from 0.64 pesos to 0.85 pesos per cigarette. The IEPS for violent video games will be 8% for the first time.
Economy falls due to changes in US trade policy
The secretary also explained that the 0.3% drop in GDP in the third quarter, compared to the previous quarter, was due to lower activity in sectors more exposed to the new trade policies, as well as supply disruptions associated with rains and blockades that affected transportation and accommodation services.
He explained that the contraction compared to the same period last year was 0.2%, and is due to the focused fall in manufacturing activity, while the primary sectors report growth.
“We have a contraction concentrated in the industrial activity sector, which represents around 17% of GDP, we have this contraction focused on the sectors of industrial activity, specifically in the manufacturing sector, which has been important due to the accumulation of the effects of the change in North American trade policy,” commented Amador Zamora.
The secretary specified that in September there was a greater than expected contraction in the General Index of Economic Activity, and the recovery in the last two months was not enough to compensate for that fall.
Rodrigo Mariscal, chief economist of the Treasury, explained that for the last half of the year, it is expected that the situation will be better.
“The indicators of activity and consumer and business confidence are improving, which is a symptom that economic activity may improve in the last quarter,” said Mariscal.
