This morning, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported in its preliminary estimate that GDP grew 1.0% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. A positive scenario for the Treasury, which allows it to rule out a recession at the end of 2024 and 2025.
The consensus of analysts predicts that the Mexican economy will close at 1.5% this year, however, with today’s data, GDP would have to fall at least 0.2% in the last quarter compared to the third quarter, explained Rodrigo Mariscal, chief economist. of the SHCP.
“Right now the external and internal conditions do not give us a perspective that anticipates that there will be a contraction next quarter, it seems to be difficult, even if we did not grow, the economy already has a growth base of around 1.4-1.5%, it is seen difficult (closing the entire year at 1.5%), what we would see is that the analysts can make a slight adjustment,” commented Mariscal.
For this year, The Treasury has an estimate of GDP in a range of 2.5-3.5%; for 2025 it is predicted at 2.0-3.0%. When it presents the Economic Package in 2025 to the Congress of the Union, it will be seen if the institution in charge of public finances makes a downward adjustment to its projections.
Also, for the following year, the chief economist foresees that there will not be a recession, or growth of 1.3% as predicted by private sector analysts, international organizations and Banxico.
“Next year would also be difficult, because we would start from this base more, to reach the 1.3% that analysts see, they would have to experience very low growth consistently throughout the entire year, which can also be anticipated that it would be difficult for pass,” Mariscal commented.
