From the United States the accusation has already arrived that the electrical counter-reform of the 4T government is in violation of the T-MEC, if carried out, it could be very detrimental to the only major component of the aggregate demand of the Mexican economy, exports .
Can a powerful government, as the one headed by President López Obrador undoubtedly is, do what it wants? The answer is in the negative. This, because there are powerful forces that are outside their domain and their subordination. This is the case of the counter-reform for the electricity sector and that has run into opposition, already openly declared, by the United States government, with President Joe Biden at the helm.
I believe that the defense of this proposal will be very difficult at the diplomatic level, due to the lack of technical support to support it. It is a proposal that only has political and ideological support. Political, in terms of the motivation to reverse a reform promoted by the supposedly “neoliberal” government of Peña Nieto. And from an ideological angle, because it is fundamentally based on the idea, quite obsolete, by the way, that the State is always the absolute good of the film and must prevail, even in the monopoly variant, over the private sector in strategic sectors such as electricity.
Contrary to the opinion of many, I think that the electrical counter-reform has already begun to have harmful effects from the very moment of its statement on the propensity to invest by companies and investors. However, it is not the only impact that has been felt in this sense and without a doubt, the recessive tendencies in the Mexican economy have been accentuated. Unquestionably, this is not good news for the level of employment and the well-being of the great majority of the country.
In a very ominous way, the accusation has already arrived from the United States that the electrical counter-reform of the 4T government is in violation of the T-MEC free trade agreement. If carried out, it could be very detrimental to the only major component of the aggregate demand of the Mexican economy that has shown dynamism in recent times, which is exports.
Experts on the subject have also mentioned, and surely not unfounded, that a train wreck against the Biden administration could even lead to a downgrade of Mexico’s sovereign debt rating. That is, of the direct debt of the Federal Government. Will be?
Columnist
economic debate
