Earlier, Moody’s Analytics did the same lowered its growth estimate for Mexico in 2025, only 0.6%.
S&P justifies its downward revision of growth for Mexico due to the threat of changes to the USMCA with Trump, as this may delay investment decisions.
Although in its base scenario it expects there to be no major changes to the USMCA, neither before nor during the review process in 2026.
Additionally, the agency mentions that the US migration policy towards Mexico is likely to be controversial under the new US administration, which could influence proposed changes in trade policy and weaken investment and remittances.
At the same time, if trade tensions between the United States and China continue to increase, emerging market producers with high-value intermediate goods from the Asian country could also face stricter rules of origin for goods sold in the US market.
Of note are countries with large bilateral trade deficits with the United States, whose economies could come under greater scrutiny by the next U.S. administration.
The five largest US trade deficits with emerging markets after China are with Mexico, Vietnam, India, Thailand and Malaysia
As another risk factor for Mexico that is not Trump, there are the approved Mexican reforms, such as the Judicial Reform, which in some cases still require secondary legislation, this can also delay investment decisions until there is more clarity on the implications.
