The fall in the international price of iron and the increase in fertilizer and oil prices caused the trade surplus to shrink in September. Last month, the country exported US$ 3.993 billion more than it imported – a drop of 9.3% compared to September last year (US$ 4.401 billion), according to the Ministry of Economy.
From January to September this year, the trade balance accumulates a surplus of US$ 47.869 billion. This represents 15.6% less than recorded in the same months last year. Despite the decline, the balance is the second best in history for the period, losing only to the first nine months of 2021, when the surplus had closed at US$ 56.44 billion.
Last month, Brazil sold US$ 28.95 billion abroad and bought US$ 24.957 billion. Both imports and exports hit a record in September, since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. Exports rose 18.8% in relation to September last year, according to the daily average criterion. Imports, however, increased at a faster pace: 24.9% in the same comparison.
In the case of exports, the record is due more to the increase in shipments than in the international prices of goods than in the volume traded. Last month, the volume of exported goods rose by an average of 12.6% compared to September last year, while average prices increased by 6%. The appreciation of prices could have been greater were it not for the fall in iron ore, whose price fell 32% in the same comparison, and for semi-finished iron or steel products, whose price fell by 42.7%.
In imports, the quantity purchased rose 8.5%, reflecting the recovery of the economy, but average prices increased at a more intense pace: 18.6%. The rise in prices was mainly driven by manures, fertilizers, oil, natural gas, coal and wheat, items that became more expensive after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
sectors
In the agricultural sector, the increase in international prices weighed more on exports. The volume of goods shipped rose 17.3% in September compared to the same month in 2021, while the average price rose 26.1%. In the manufacturing industry, the amount exported rose 11.9%, with the average price increasing 9.7%.
In the extractive industry, which includes the export of minerals and oil, the amount exported rose 10.5%, but average prices dropped 13.2% compared to September last year. Although the average price of crude oil rose by 22.1% in this comparison, the price of iron ore fell by 37.5%, driven by lockdowns (confinements) in China, which reduced international demand.
The most prominent products in agricultural exports were unground corn, except sweet corn (+260%), unroasted coffee (+42.6%) and soybeans (+6.4%) in agriculture. The negative highlight was live animals, except for fish or crustaceans, whose exports fell 56.9% from September last year to September this year.
In the extractive industry, the biggest increases were registered in exports of other crude minerals (+77.7%), other ores and base metal concentrates (+191.6%) and crude oil (+40.9%). In the manufacturing industry, the biggest rises occurred in sugars and molasses (+44.7%), soybean meal, meat and other animal meal (+71.8%) and cellulose (+68.9%).
As for imports, the biggest increases were registered in the following products: unmilled barley (+5,632.8%), unmilled wheat and rye (+32.0%) and fruits and nuts (+21.5%), in agriculture ; crude oil (+192.7%), in the extractive industry; and fuels (+142.9%), agricultural pest controllers (+75.1%) and organo-inorganic compounds (+65.4%), in the manufacturing industry.
Regarding fertilizers, the growth in imports is entirely due to the price, which rose 47.4% in September compared to the same month last year. Imported volume dropped 22.6% because of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
I estimated
The economic team significantly reduced the trade surplus projection for 2022. In July, the government projected a positive balance of US$ 81.5 billion. The updated estimate today (3) predicts a surplus of US$ 55.4 billion.
Despite the drop in the estimate, this value would guarantee the second largest trade surplus in the historical series. The balance would only be smaller than the surplus of US$ 61.407 billion observed last year.
Official estimates are updated every three months. Forecasts are more pessimistic than those of the financial market. The Focus bulletin, a survey of market analysts released every week by the Central Bank, projects a surplus of US$ 61.5 billion this year.
