Pressured by the growth in imports and the drop in oil exports, the trade balance recorded the smallest surplus for the months of November in four years, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (Mdic) announced this Thursday (4), in Brasília.
Last month, exports exceeded imports by US$5.842 billion, a drop of 13.4% compared to the surplus of US$6.746 billion in the same month of 2024.
This is the worst trade balance result for November since 2021. That month, there was a deficit of US$1.11 billion.
The value of exports and imports was as follows:
- Exports: US$28.515 billion, an increase of 2.4% compared to November last year;
- Imports: US$ 22.673 billion, an increase of 7.4% in the same comparison
The value of exports broke a record for the months of November since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. Imports also reached a record value for the month.
Accumulated
From January to November, the trade balance recorded a surplus of US$57.839 billion. The value is 16.8% lower than that recorded in the same period last year and the lowest for the period since 2022.
The composition was as follows:
- Exports: US$317.821 billion, an increase of 1.8% compared to the same period last year.
- Imports: US$ 259.983 billion, an increase of 7.2% in the same comparison.
Sectors
In distribution by economic sectors, exports in November grew as follows:
- Agriculture: +25.8%, with an increase of 20.1% in volume and 4.1% in average price
- Extractive industry: -14%, with a 9.8% drop in volume and a 4.8% drop in average price
- Manufacturing industry: +3.7%, with a 5.2% increase in volume and a 2% drop in average price
Products
The main products responsible for the growth in exports in November were the following:
- Agriculture: soybeans (+64.6%); unground corn, except sweet corn (+12.6%); and unroasted coffee (+9.1%)
- Manufacturing industry: semi-finished products, ingots and other primary forms of iron or steel (+102%); aircraft and components (+86.1%); and beef (+57.9%)
In the extractive industry, the main products that led to the drop in the sector’s exports are the following: copper ores and their concentrates (-64.2%) and crude petroleum oils (-21.3%).
In the case of crude oil, the drop in exports reaches US$963 million compared to November 2024. Traditionally, oil sales record strong monthly variations due to scheduled platform maintenance.
In relation to imports, growth is linked to the recovery of the economy, with an increase in consumption and investments. In the division by categories, the main products are the following:
- Agriculture: rye, oats and other cereals, not ground (+332.8%) and soybeans (+2,753%)
- Extractive industry: non-agglomerated coal (+53.4%), lignite and peat (+36.6%) and natural gas (+20.5%)
- Manufacturing industry: fuels (+63.7%), non-electric motors and machines (+46.4%) and automatic data processing machines (+115.3%)
Projections
For this year, the Mdic projects a trade surplus of US$60.9 billion. Exports are expected to end the year at US$344.9 billion; and imports, at US$284 billion.
Projections are reviewed every three months. The previous estimate, released in July, did not yet consider the effects of tariffs in the United States. Last year, the trade balance recorded a surplus of US$74 billion. The record surplus was recorded in 2023, when the positive result was US$98.9 billion.
The Mdic’s estimates are more pessimistic than those of financial institutions. According to the Focus bulletin, a weekly survey by the Central Bank of market analysts, the trade balance will end the year with a surplus of US$62.85 billion.
