The trade balance recorded the second largest surplus for the months of January since the beginning of the historical series, benefiting from the drop in imports, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (Mdic) announced this Thursday (5). Last month, exports exceeded imports by US$4.342 billion, an increase of 85.8% compared to the surplus of US$2.337 billion in the same month of 2025.
The trade balance result for January is second only to 2024. In that month, there was a surplus of US$6.196 billion.
The value of exports and imports:
- Exports: US$25.153 billion, down 1% compared to January last year;
- Imports: US$ 20.810 billion, a drop of 9.8% in the same comparison.
The value of exports is the third best for January since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989, only behind January 2024 and 2025. Imports registered the second best January in the series, only behind the same month last year.
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Sectors
In distribution by economic sectors, exports in January varied as follows:
- Agriculture: 2.1%, with a 3.4% drop in volume and a 5.3% increase in average price;
- Extractive industry: -3.4%, with a 6.2% increase in volume and a 9.1% drop in average price;
- Manufacturing industry: -0.5%, with a decline of 0.6% in volume and 0.1% in average price.
Products
The main products responsible for the drop in exports in January were the following:
- Agriculture: unroasted coffee (-23.7%); raw cotton (-31.2%); and unground wheat and rye (-33.6%);
- Extractive industry, crude petroleum oils (-7.8%); and iron ore (-8.6%);
- Manufacturing industry: aluminum oxide, except artificial corundum (-54.6%); sugars and molasses (-27.2%) and tobacco (-50.4%).
In the case of agribusiness, soybean exports grew 91.7% compared to January last year, due to the anticipation of shipments, and sales of unground corn increased 18.8%.
In relation to crude oil, the drop in exports reaches US$364.6 million compared to January 2025. Traditionally, oil sales record strong monthly variations due to scheduled platform maintenance.
In relation to imports, the drop is linked to oil and the slowdown in the economy, with a decrease in investments.
In the division by categories, the main products are the following:
- Agriculture: raw or roasted cocoa (-86.3%); and unground wheat and rye (-35.5%);
- Extractive industry: crude petroleum oils (-49.8%); and natural gas (-15.8%);
- Manufacturing industry: non-electric motors and machines (-66.8%); petroleum fuel oils (-17.5%); and vehicle parts and accessories (-20.4%).
Projections
For this year, the Mdic projects trade surplus from US$70 billion to US$90 billion. Exports should end the year at between US$340 billion and US$380 billion and imports between US$270 billion and US$290 billion.
Official projections for the trade balance are updated quarterly. According to the Mdic, new, more detailed estimates on exports, imports and trade balance for 2026 will be released in April.
Last year, the trade balance recorded a surplus of US$68.3 billion. The record surplus was recorded in 2023, when the positive result was US$98.9 billion.
Mdic’s estimates are more optimistic than those of financial institutions. According to the Focus Bulletina weekly survey by the Central Bank of market analysts, the trade balance will end 2026 with a surplus of US$67.65 billion.
