Each Major League season is a new opportunity to see the explosion of talented players who had not been able to fully show their skills, or others who had not been able to debut on the best baseball circuit in the world. To a greater or lesser extent, there are always these breakout players competing with the established stars of the game of ball and strike in the United States.
This 2023 is no exception, although we have only consumed around a third of the campaign. We already have several surprises that we want to share in this installment of Three Strikes, in which we will analyze the performance of some batters who have astonished us in the early stages of the course, among which stands out a player claimed on waivers and another that in a few months will hit free agency.
Without further ado, let’s sing the Play ball!
Yandy Diaz is awesome
The way things are going for Cuban Yandy Díaz in 2023, last season seems like the appetizer for the main course in the Rays first baseman’s career. Let’s remember that he finished with an on-base average over .400 (.401) and an offensive average over .295 (.296), in addition to an exquisite combination between his rate of tickets (14%) and strikeouts (10.8%) received, in both cases better than the league average (8.2% and 22.4%, respectively).
The only thing that was asked of Yandy was to improve his production of extra-base hits, since he had a high rate (49%) of Hard Hit (balls hit over 95 miles). With that base, the man from Villa Clara prepared to take the next step and right now he is one of the elite hitters in MLB, combining the quality of the connections with the discipline at the plate.
His progression has been very significant and this is evidenced by his percentiles, through which we can know how good a player is above the rest of the players in the league. For example, Yandy has a 98th percentile in percentage of Hard Hit (meaning he’s better than 98% of MLB players), and he’s the only hitter so far this season with 85th percentiles or higher in walk rate (88) and air swine rate (88).
If Yandy had the quality of the connections, he only needed one adjustment: raise the ball more. The angle of departure from the connections did not increase it as much (from 7.7 degrees to 9.8), but it was necessary for his ground ball percentage to decrease from 50% to 46.5% and his fly ball percentage to increase from 19.6% to 27.6%. That leaves us with an improvement in his extra-base hit rate (from 7.5% to 10.7%), home run rate (1.6% to 6.0%) and slugging (from .423 to .593). In just a month and a half of the season, he has needed 390 fewer appearances to surpass his home run total from last year.
Rooker On Fire!
Brent Rooker has been my big surprise offensively up to this minute. It’s amazing how he was able to improve so much on a player who had a .668 career OPS at age 28 and who he was claimed on waivers last November. Perhaps the key is in his approach and changes in his hitting mechanics, aspects he worked on during the offseason.
The fruits are being seen. His OPS (.984) is third-highest among qualified AL hitters, his on-base percentage is fifth (.398) and his slugging percentage is third (.586).
In addition, the Oakland boy is third (180) in MLB in wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created), a metric that quantifies run creation and adjusts it taking into account external factors such as stadiums or the time the player played, which It allows us to compare the performance of players playing in different parks or eras. It is important to clarify here that the wRC+ has number 100 as its balance point, which would be the league average, so any player who exceeds that figure would be above average.
So far, Brent Rooker is one of four hitters with at least 10 home runs, 30 RBIs and a wRC+ of at least 150. The exclusive list includes Randy Arozarena, Nolan Gorman and Sean Murphy. Stop counting.
Unsurprisingly, Rooker’s percentiles have quickly turned red. His barrel percentile (balls hit with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle) is 97 (meaning he’s better than 97% of MLB players), his percentage of Hard Hits is 93 and the average exit speed is (89). His improvement has been more evident by his good indicators in the rate of tickets received and swines out of the zone.
There are still things that can be improved, because he continues to strike out more than the average batter, although not by much (22.9% for Rooker and 22.1% for the average). Either way, his pitch chase rate is high, so it’s unlikely his strikeout rate will improve much compared to 2022.
Anything can happen from now on, but the best projection systems think that he will end with his best season, surpassing his line of three seasons in a single year (10 home runs and wRC+ 86 in 81 games and 270 appearances from 2020 to 2022). .
According to ZIPS, he will finish with 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and wRC+ 138. Steamer sees him with 30 home runs, 83 RBIs and wRC+ 135, while THE BAT X projects him with 17 home runs, 55 RBIs and wRC+ 111.
Chapman prepares to hit free agency
Matt Chapman is only months away from entering free agency, so it’s critical that he have a great year if he wants to reassess his market value as a 30-year-old third baseman. At least, in this start, the former Athletics player is showing a very high level, so much so that he had never had such a good start to the contest.
It’s the first time Chapman, in his first 42 games starting a season, has hit 5 home runs and posted a .930 OPS. The biggest change is in the quality of his connections: 23.5% of his hits are considered barrels (last year it was 12.9%) and his average output velocity rose from 92.2 miles to 94.4. Plus, he’s been making more contact and driving the ball all over the field, which is why his BABIP is the highest (.425) in the majors.
Overall, he has a better walk and strikeout rate than the average hitter and 64.5% of his connections are Hard Hit. Let’s not forget either that, despite its relegation curve, the defense is still good.
Are the Cards getting what they expected from Nolan Gorman?
He modus operandi of the Cardinals has always been framed by the care of their prospects. His formula in this sense has been clear: keep the best talent in his farm system and do not involve them in trades. Precisely, one of those guys with great potential is Nolan Gorman, who was valued for a long time among the best prospects in MLB.
Gorman’s first season wasn’t disastrous, but it wasn’t terribly wow, either. In 313 trips to the plate he left an offensive line (Average / On-base average /slugging) batting .226/.300/.420 with 14 homers and 35 RBIs. After that, the best drafted player in High School history De Sandra Day O’Connor (Arizona) has shown signs of progression so far this season.
The changes are notorious but if we want to summarize them we can start by looking at his offensive line: .283/.378/.583/.961 in 148 appearances. He has hit 10 home runs and has driven in 33 runs in his first 39 games. In that span, his wRC+ is 160.
Gorman is simply getting better against the major pitch families: Against fast pitches (two- and four-seam fastballs, sinker and cutter) he’s upped his average from .124 to .324 and his slugging from .340 to .662; against breakers (slider, curve, sweeper, knuckle) improved from .260 to .324 and from .493 to 662, respectively.
He also made a quality leap in plate discipline. The first thing he did was shoot the ball less (he dropped from 51.1% to 46.4%), and be more selective:
* Percentage of swine against shots inside the zone: 74.9% in 2022 and 75.2% in 2023
* Percentage of swines against shots outside the zone: from 31.1% in 2022 to 23.2% in 2023
In addition, he is missing less, both against pitches outside the zone and those that come well placed, so the percentage of swines that become a strike has decreased (from 16% in 2022 to 12.4% this year). Those changes have led to an improvement in his walk and strikeout rate.
There are some extra mentions that we can make, such as Sean Murphy, Max Muncy and Randy Arozarena. They may be better-known hitters, but they’ve raised their level a notch or two more. In the same way, the pitchers also deserve an analysis and soon we will be with that column.
