In dialogue with Portafolio, the president of the Anif Economic Studies Center, José Ignacio López, analyzed the projections and economic perspectives for Colombia in 2025 and assured that although this will be a good year in general terms, There are various alerts that cannot be overlooked.
The Fiscal Front, relations with the United States, public spending management, inflation behavior and cash state; They will be fundamental elements that, according to this analyst, must be followed closely to avoid surprises during the validity that is already underway.
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What comes for 2025?
We have said that 2025 will be a year of much volatility in financial markets, of great uncertainty, both local and global, but finally we are optimistic that 2025 will be a year, in terms of growth, better than 2024 .
In our growth forecast by 2024, which we will soon know the final figure, we have a 1.8% perspective and compared to 2025 we are projecting a growth of 2.6%, that is, we think that in 2025 we will grow more.
Is the road clear?
This prognosis is not exempt from risks, and in fact, at a juncture of great uncertainty, much volatility, there are conditions that materialize, risks that if concretized, could affect our growth perspective.
However, ultimately, beyond this, we think that as a result of a process of disinflation and reduction of interest rates, perhaps greater risk appetite, some more favorable conditions in some investment sectors, because we are going to grow a bit more in 2025.
The Latin American country with the highest economic growth.
What risks do they perceive?
Let’s start with external factors. The Donald Trump government has made a series of promises that will probably try to fulfill, many of them can have inflationary effects in the United States, can generate international trade disruptions and can also generate greater fiscal pressure. This would imply higher interest rates on the part of the Federal Reserve and by financial markets in medium and long term bonds.
There is still a lot of uncertainty of how far these scenarios are going to be materialized, for example, Trump has mentioned a tariff policy, sometimes punctual, which could be extended even to a universal tariff of 10%. While these proposals are still in see, the episode with Colombia shows that the United States will probably use tariffs as a negotiation tool or to deter or encourage certain policies on other fronts. We will have to see how that materializes.
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And in the local context?
The Colombian economy faces vulnerability related to its financing needs, especially in the public sector, in a context of high interest rates that exert additional pressure on the search for resources to solve the fiscal deficit.
In addition, a commercial disruption that directly affects Colombia could have very negative impacts. The recent mini diplomatic crisis, which fortunately resolved quickly, allowed us to glimpse the possible consequences, perhaps catastrophic, of a commercial war with the United States.
Although we consider that such a scenario should not even happen, it puts us in perspective on the impact it would have on our economy, forcing us to review our growth projections if it would materialize.
Are there tax risks?
The budget postponement decree for $ 12 billion is already known, which implies the definance of some strategic projects for the country. We are likely to see greater tension in the allocation of resources and in the type of cuts that will be applied to spending programs.
Beyond the traditional economic analysis on fiscal deficit, greater borrowing needs and higher interest rates, this situation could generate direct impacts on the economy, as a kind of “financial blackout” in sectors that depend on resources or commitments of the public sector .
José Ignacio López, President of Anif.
What sectors would be affected?
Some of the most affected sectors would be health, where the Constitutional Court ordered the rise unit to be recalculated by the Capitation Payment (UPC); the energy sector, which faces financial problems derived from the tariff option and breach in subsidy payment schemes; and the infrastructure sector, where there is a lag in payments to suppliers, many of them small businesses.
How do you see the fiscal rule?
What we must point out is that, for a good part of this year, we will continue loading with a missing collection. When projections were carried out in the medium -term fiscal framework by 2025, these were based on cases on tax revenues that finally did not materialize.
As a result, a gap has begun to open between the estimated income and the real income that we will probably observe even more. The good news is that at the end of last year a positive collection was achieved, especially in December, which suggests a rebound in the commerce sector in the last months of the year.
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Will the economy help square box?
Since the composition of the country’s economic growth still plays against the Government in terms of tax revenues, we are likely to continue facing a deficit between projections and effective income. This not only forces them to carry out budgetary postponements, but also leads him to restrict spending for a good part of 2025.
This situation not only responds to the need to comply with the fiscal rule, which will be even more difficult to achieve this year compared to the previous one, but also to the persistence of a collection lower than expected. In fact, there have been several months with negative figures, which aggravates government liquidity problems. If a collection recovery is not achieved, the country will continue to face cash difficulties similar to those of the second semester of 2024.
Economic growth
What to expect for inflation and rates?
We review our inflation prognosis after the announcement of the minimum wage and now we estimate that the year will close about 4%. This means that our projection is no longer within the range of 2% to 4%, but would be slightly on the outside.
As a consequence, the Bank of the Republic will have less margin to reduce interest rates, so we foresee that the interest rate will remain above 7% at the end of the year.
