The recent warnings about an imminent shortage of natural gas for 2025 and 2026, which would lead to higher prices, contrast with the recent behavior of inflation in this energy source, since according to the figures of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), the accumulated variation until June for gas reached 2.6% and the data compared to May showed a decrease of 0.52%
When reviewing the data from the Superintendency of Public Services, it is evident that In some markets there has been a contraction of up to 12% compared in May 2024 compared to the same month last year. Some Macroeconomic factors have explained this trend, although it could be broken in the coming months. in the face of growing expectations of a deficit for next year.
Data from Superservicios show that for the fifth month of the year, in markets such as those of Bogotato (operated by Vanti), Cali (operated by Gases de Oeste) or Cúcuta (where Gases del Oriente sells gas) Significant annual contractions were seenranging from 6% to 12%.
However, This balance is mixed, since the same analysis shows that there were significant increases in Mayas in the case of Bucaramanga, also operated by Vanti, where gas prices rose 31.1% annuallyIn the other markets where there were increases during the month, they were not as marked as in this case and only rose between 1.3% and 4.9%.
He cubic meter in markets like Bogotá is at $2,200being one of the lowest rates, while in other regions such as Cúcuta is located at $3,119 per cubic meter, for the full tariff. This means that it is the real cost, without subsidy or additional contribution, given that in the case of natural gas the figure of cross-subsidy is used, which is also used in the case of electricity.
Rodolfo Anaya, president of Vanti, said that the markets that the company operates have had relatively stable prices.It is worth noting that this company operates in Bogotá, Soacha, Sibaté, La Calera, El Rosal, La Mesa and Anapoima, in addition to those it also has through subsidiaries, such as Gas Natural Cundiboyacense and Gasnacer.
Rodolfo Anaya, President of Vanti
Andesco
The stability in the price of energy, said Anaya, responds to the fact that both the exchange rate (TRM) and the Producer Price Index (IPP)) have remained stable.
According to Luz Stella Murgas, president of Naturgas, andBetween March 2023 and March 2024, rates have shown a decrease of 7.5%, explained by the price of energy and transport, which have had decreases of -9.3% and -22.9% respectively. However, This has been offset by a 19% increase in distribution costs..
The case of Bucaramanga
The escalation in this city is explained because Vanti had an agreement to bring gas from the Gibraltar plant in Norte de Santander with Ecopetrol; However, this agreement ended, which led the company to have to look for alternative supplies in other areas. For this reason, Since April, the price of the bill has increased by up to 50%.
Gas shortage puts pressure on prices
For several months now, there have been warnings about possible shortages in the supply of natural gas starting next year. Data on the production declaration and the supply of natural gas available for firm sale that were published in recent days confirmed that There is a shortage of gas to be marketed in the coming months.
According to calculations by Naturgas, by 2025 the shortage would be 12% of demand and by 2026 this would grow to 30%.
Murgas, president of the union, pointed out that the effect that This could cause energy prices to skyrocket.. This is because the price of natural gas is lower locally than internationally. In the event of shortages, must be covered from external sources, users would be the first to feel it.
Anaya pointed out that in the past there have already been increases in the molecules that were negotiated. He presented the case of the 2023 contract auction closed with an 86% increase in the reserve price and another process showed interest 15 times the volume of gas offered, which shows the need for more gas.
Luz Stella Murgas, president of Naturgás.
Courtesy
He explained that at the end of this year Vanti contracts expire for around 40 GBTUD or 15% of the total they must deliver in their markets; however, they hope to cover these needs in the coming days, in the midst of the process to contract gas.
“In principle, in 2025, we consider that we have everything covered and it can be solved, as long as the necessary measures are taken promptly, both regulatory and market, which have already been raised and supported before the Ministry of Mines and Energy and the regulator“Anaya said.
However, at the close of This year, the total number of contracts that expire is equivalent to 129 GBTUD, which could cause complications for other markets. to supply its users.
This shortage will lead to higher prices, because demand is higher than available supply, which will add to the effects of a possible import on tariffs.
Murgas explained that The tariff is composed of 47% of the purchase price of the moleculesso an increase in this component will have important effects, but that In each market it will be linked to the new hiring that must be done while there is a tightness in the balance sheet.
Dates for buying and selling gas change
The last friday On July 26, the Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission (Creg) presented circular 047 by means of which toupdated the date for the gas marketing process, which was to start on July 29.
The Commission indicated that the process It will now start on August 23 and end on September 16. Thus, A margin is given for the adoption of the draft resolution that generates flexibility in the commercialization of gas.
Daniela Morales Soler
Portfolio Journalist
