The economist Haivanjoe Ng Cortiñas warned this Monday that the dominican economy will close 2025 with a growth of just between 2.2% and 2.3%, its lowest level in 16 years under normal conditions, a slowdown that it described as alarming and that occurs despite the fact that foreign currency earnings from tourism, remittances, exports and foreign investment will reach a historical record estimated at US$46 billion.
For Ng Cortiñas, this paradox -a thriving external sector next to one stagnant domestic economy— is the clearest evidence that the country is trapped in inertia. He affirms that the US$46 billion constitute a cushion of stability that prevents a major crisis, but they also mask the severity of the internal structural paralysis.
In that sense, he ensures that the external dynamism It can no longer be transmitted to the rest of the economy because there is no domestic force that drives it forward. “Simply put, the economy of 2025 has been coasting“said the economist in his year-end informative note.
Aggravated macroeconomic outlook
Haivanjoe Ng He detailed that this performance, well below the growth potential of 5%, represents a significant setback.
He pointed out that the outlook is worsening with inflation that would end the year at 4.5%, above the official goal of 4.0%, which implies that prices grew almost twice as much as real economic activity, eroding the purchasing power of citizens.
He points out that one of the central factors of this slowdown is the drastic decrease in bank credit in national currencywhose growth was around 9.0%, well below the usual pace of 15.0%.
He adds that this credit restriction directly impacted traditionally driving sectors, such as construction, free zones, local manufacturing and commerce, which showed depressed behavior during the year.
Public finances and spending that does not promote
In another order, Ng Cortiñas warned about a progressive deterioration of Dominican public finances, predicting that the fiscal deficit would rise to around 3.2% of GDP, while the balance of the public debt It amounts to US$61,360 million, equivalent to almost 48.0% of GDP.
He emphasized that the current structure of the public spending restricts any possibility of boosting the economy, as has happened in this year 2025.
“With current expenditure consuming 88.0% of the total budget and capital investment of only 12.0%, it is very difficult to generate a economic boost sustainable internal system,” he said.
Likewise, he expressed concern about the financing of the Government through the Central Bankwhich exceeded RD$35,000 million, which contributes to internal inflationary pressures and maintains interest rates active at high levels, over 14.3%.
The economist raised the urgent need to rethink the productive modelarguing that the foreign exchange record confirms that we are good at attracting external income, but also reveals a extreme dependency of sensitive sectors. “If we do not diversify, increase productivity and modernize the productive apparatus, we are going to remain trapped not only in inertia, but also in vulnerability,” he emphasized.
He explained that this vulnerability became evident in the exchange market during 2025, which showed stress and forced the Central Bank to intervene on several occasions to contain the depreciation of the peso. The exchange rate would close above RD$64.15, for an annual depreciation close to 4.5%.
Ng Cortiñas indicated that the economic results of the year ending should be interpreted as a warning sign maxim on internal factors that limit growth.
“This year shows that the Dominican Republic cannot continue to trust that the economy will be sustained by inertia or only by a external sector favorable. It’s time to vary the economic policy official; Otherwise, we will get used, on a negative note, to a growth that contributes less and less to progress,” he stated.
Finally, he issued a warning about next year: if the factors of this situation are not reversed, internal paralysishe 2026 could end with similar results, favoring the social unrest that is accumulating, in addition to the loss of confidence that the population shows in those who manage the public, a foundation that could threaten the stability that the dominican economy.
