Specialists in agroclimatology warned this Saturday that the maintenance of the drought conditions caused by the repetition of the “La Niña” phenomenon will continue to affect a large part of the so-called Argentine Core Zone in the coming months, with an expected decrease from the first quarter of 2023.
“We are in Niña conditions for the third consecutive year and we have been in an anomalous situation at the regional level in recent years,” said the head of the Agricultural Emergencies and Disasters Monitoring Office (Omega), María de Estrada, who compared it with the last great drought occurred in 2008 and 2009.
The specialist said that “we are experiencing the lowest values on record” during the presentation of a report on the Meteorological Outlook 2022/23 of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, and the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA). ).
“We are in Niña conditions for the third consecutive year and we have been in an anomalous situation at the regional level in recent years”Maria de Estrada
According to the latest report from the National Drought Monitoring Board, the area affected by drought in the country exceeds 140 million hectares and the “severe drought” category affects seven millionparticularly in the Core Zone, in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Entre Ríos.
After remarking that “not all droughts lead to catastrophes”, De Estrada warned that “the consequences impact other systems” and raised his concern because “we are entering the time of greatest water demand with rising temperatures”.
For her part, Natalia Gattinoni, an INTA expert, considered that “more than 70% probability is expected that the phenomenon will continue in the coming months and, mainly, in the first part of the summer.”
Gattinoni stated that in October, November and December “deficit rainfall conditions prevail” and predicted that “La Niña will continue in a cold phase.”
“There is more than 70% probability that the phenomenon will continue in the coming months and, mainly, in the first part of the summer”Natalia Gattinoni
In this sense, Eduardo Sierra, an expert in atmospheric sciences, predicted that in the coming weeks “we would remain in the neutral cold zone and only in mid-December would we enter the warm zone, when the rains start.”
In a dialogue with TodoAgro Radio, Sierra assured that “there is no international center that says that there is a strong Niña to follow, what there are are the remains of the one that existed for two years, that when there is a double episode the dissipation is always very slow”.
“At this time we are experiencing a late outbreak but from the previous one; for the rest of the campaign, what practically all the forecast centers foresee is a transition towards a neutral one,” explained the specialist.
According to Saw, “We are still in La Niña, leaving in mid-November, to remain cold neutral, with effects quite similar to La Niña; and we would enter warm Neutral possibly at the end of December or beginning of January, with activation of rains”.
“It is a transition process; nobody says that a third La Niña will follow, and even the forecasts are that the transition is improving; Argentina, in the middle of the agricultural season, is caught by this regrowth of La Niña, which has already happened” , accurate.
Sierra recalled that “this happened twice, that we went from a double episode of La Niña to a good campaign: in 2007-2009 and in 2016-2018.”
In the first case, he explained, “at the end of November 2009 it started to rain, the late crops were planted and it was a record for corn and soybean yields until today, 13 years ago, and one of the largest harvests; to occur in 2016/17 and 2017/18, two Niñas, the same as 2021/22”.
However, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) reported this week that “the chances that the ‘Niña’ conditions will continue in the region remain.”
“Unfortunately, in February the probability of ‘Niña’ is 55%. Only in March do the chances of ‘Neutro’ appear with 61%; As of March, the expected change in trend would occur, returning to neutral conditions with a probability greater than 60%,” adds consultant Alfredo Elorriaga, according to the BCR.
“We have to have hope,” asked Aiello, and recommended: “Let’s forget about early sowings, and soybeans, which is the one that has the best chance of reaching the reactivation of the rains.”
