The former vice minister of Economy, Carlos Casaswarned that economic stability towards 2031 is in danger, among other things, due to the current upward trend in the public spendingthe approval of laws with negative tax impact and the lack of control in loss-making state companies.
“If the current trend (spending) is not controlled, we could end up in a situation close to insolvency and where the markets perceive us as a risky country from a macroeconomic point of view,” he said.
In that sense, he pointed out that if the country does not act soon, it could face a deterioration in sovereign risk, an increase in the cost of credit and less room for countercyclical policies.
“It has been very costly (for Peru) when fiscal policies are very expansive and expenses begin to be financed increasingly with a greater proportion of debt. The cost of adjustment is assumed by society and affects the long-term growth of the country,” he noted.
Carlos Casas, who presented the 2026 Agenda of the Research Center of the Universidad del Pacífico (CIUP), proposed a comprehensive fiscal consolidation strategy, where he proposes, among other things, combating evasion and informality through differentiated policies and the use of technology.
In this sense, he pointed out that Peru maintains a tax pressure of around 15%, below the Latin American average (17.8%) and the OECD member countries (24.6%).
An important point that is highlighted is the fight against corruption since this scourge, added to the inefficiency of the State, can cost more than 1% of the annual GDP.
“Reducing the deficit and the level of debt must be a priority of the next government because the cost that fiscal indiscipline can impose on society can be very strong and destroy everything that has been achieved in the last 30 years,” he added.
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