The Climate Prediction Center of the United States Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Agency (NOAA) issued its study prior to the start of the hurricanes, where he forecasts above-average cyclone activity for this year. If fulfilled, 2022 would become the seventh consecutive season above average.
The season forecast, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-average season, and a 10% chance of an above-average season. of a lower than normal season.
The study forecasts a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms — with winds of 39 miles per hour (mph) or more — of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes — winds of 74 mph or more — including 3 to 6 major hurricanes – category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or more. The study has a 70% reliability.
“Preparing early and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and weather ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout hurricane season, experts will work around the clock to provide accurate, advance forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can trust to stay informed,” she added.
The increase in activity predicted for this hurricane season is attributed to several climatic factors, including the La Niña phenomenon ongoing, likely to persist through hurricane season, with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, weaker Atlantic tropical trade winds, and an increased West African monsoon supporting swells strongest East African hurricanes, generating many of the strongest and longest lasting hurricanes during most seasons.
“As we reflect on another potentially intense hurricane season, past storms like Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metropolitan area ten years ago, remind us that the impact of a storm can be felt for years,” said the administrator. of NOAA, Rick Spinrad.
“(Last year’s) Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, showing that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell.
“It is important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to prepare now by visiting Ready.gov and ready.gov for preparedness tips and by downloading the FEMA app to ensure you receive real-time emergency alerts.”