AREQUIPA, Peru – The National General Staff of the Civil Defense in Cuba decided to extend the cyclonic alert phase also for the province of Camagüey due to the passage of Hurricane Oscar through the Island.
A report from the state media Cubadebate points out that it was also decided to move on to the information phase for the province of Ciego de Ávila.
Starting at 07:00 AM this Sunday, the authorities of the Cuban regime established the Cyclonic Alert Phase for the provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Granma and Las Tunas.
According to information from the Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET), Hurricane Oscar continues its movement between the west and west-southwest, which indicates that it could be making landfall during the afternoon-night of this October 20 the northern coast in the vicinity of the provinces of Guantánamo and Holguín.
Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate in the eastern region from this morning, gradually increasing the areas of showers, rains and thunderstorms, which may be strong and locally intense in some localities and in mountainous areas.
On the northern eastern coast, strong swells will begin at noon today, mainly to the north of the provinces of Guantánamo, Holguín and Las Tunas, as well as moderate coastal flooding in low areas of this coastline, including the Baracoa seawall.
During this morning Hurricane Oscar has had slight fluctuations in its intensity. Its maximum sustained winds are 130 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts, so it continues to be a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
“Its minimum pressure is 988 hectopascal and it has moved in a direction close to the west, with a speed of 19 kilometers per hour,” detailed INSMET.
A very active season
In an update to the seasonal forecast, published at the end of August, specialists from the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba reaffirmed their initial projections about the 2024 cyclone season, highlighting a “very active” behavior in the North Atlantic basin, which also includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
Dr. Miriam Teresita Llanes Monteagudo, head of the Institute’s Forecasting Center, detailed the official Granma that, for the rest of the season, the formation of 15 tropical storms is expected in this geographic area, of which nine could evolve into hurricanes.
The analysis details that, of the total number of storms predicted, 12 will develop in the Atlantic ocean area, while three could originate in the Caribbean Sea. The odds that a hurricane originate and intensify in the Caribbean are 85%, and there is a 70% probability that a hurricane originating in the Atlantic will penetrate the Caribbean region.
Furthermore, the danger of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is 80%, while the probability of at least one tropical storm impacting the country reaches 90%.
