He National Jury of Elections (JNE) estimated a few days ago that 37 political parties will participate in the elections General of next year, a figure that generates concern for democratic stability. But this fact not only has a political, but also economic impact.
In this regard, the chief economist of the BBVA Research for Peru, Hugo Perea, explained that this situation generates greater uncertainty in the country’s productive activity, among other things, because there is a risk that a more populist candidate wins with a minimum of votes.
“If we see candidates who have a speech to implement radical measures, this will generate greater noise,” he explained. The entity to which it represents estimates a growth of only 2.7% by 2026 as a consequence of the elections.
This projection, which is below the 3.1% that is projected by 2025, contemplates a base scenario where the person who wins the presidency is moderate, that is, that will not make disruptive changes, nor will it be a great economic reformer.
The analyst also pointed out that the next management will face some obstacles that it cannot miss. One of them refers to the fulfillment of the fiscal rule, which for next year establishes a deficit of 1.8% of GDP.
“Another challenge is in the pension system. This government has not been able to stop the additional retreats of pension funds and that is a future time bomb because you are leaving many people without protection,”
added.
Lower investment
The uncertainty generated by the elections will also mean a blow to private investment. For the Public Policy Manager of the Peruvian Institute of Economy (IPE), Víctor Fuentes, this disbursement would fall 1.6% in 2026.
“In pre -electoral periods we have had less consumption and investment. Now it is difficult to try to make a projection on the impact that the elections will have because the number of applicants had not seen it before,” he said.
One of the advantages that exist for the IPE representative is that Peru has inflation that is low and controlled. However, he indicated that on the executive side some actions can be taken so that the economy is not so affected by the electoral process.
“Several changes can be made with decrees that go from the Executive, as happened with the increase in the president’s salary. The contracts of already concessioned projects must also be renewed,” he added.
No bases
For the economist Juan Carlos Odar the problem also arises because the current government has not left the foundations for elections not to hit the economy.
“We must generate the favorable conditions for the economy. Probably, this year we will not see much the impact of the elections, but as of next year and when you know who are the candidates who are going to apply and those who have the most chance of winning,” he said.
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