The quarterly report of the organization based in Paris underlines:
Global growth has remained resilient, backed by the anticipation of trade and production before higher tariffs are implemented
The OECD thus approaches its December forecast, before Trump’s return to the White House, when it projected an increase in the world GDP of 3.3% in 2025. By 2026, the forecast is 2.9%, 0.4 percentage points less than December.
Emerging resistance “
The United States economy should pay in 2025 the price of the tariff battle launched by Washington, with a deceleration in growth at 1.8% and then 1.5% in 2026, compared to an increase of 2.8% last year.
Growth in the euro zone would go from 1.2% in 2025 to 1% the following year. Among its main economies, Spain would grow at the highest rate: to 2.6% and 2%, respectively.
Instead, growth will resist better this year “in a large number of emerging market economies,” says the report. China will register in 2025 an expansion of 4.9% (+0.2, compared to June), and 4.4% (+0.1) in 2026.
Brazil follows the same trend with 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively. The Economy of Mexico would grow For its part a 0.8% (+0.4) in 2025 before rebounding 1.3% (+0.2) A year later.
Argentina would grow in 2025 less than initially expected in June, at a rate of 4.5% (-0.7), according to the OECD, which left its forecast for 2026 in 4.3%.
Optimism and concern factors
Trump has imposed tariff increases to most of the United States commercial partners, leading to 19.5% the effective rate of tariffs on goods that enter the US market, a maximum since 1933, for the OECD.
Among the optimism factors for this year, industrial production has advanced more during the first six months of the year than its average rhythm in 2024 in most advanced economies, the organization points out.
In addition, “the effects of increases on tariffs have not yet been fully felt, because the application of many changes is staggered and companies initially have part of the increases on their margins,” he adds.
