The capture and prosecution of the Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro seems to have promoted a new strategy of the Administration of donald trump to achieve a change of government in Cuba before the end of this year.
According to a article published by the Wall Street Journal, which cites sources familiar with the subject, the White House would be seeking to identify influential people within the island’s Government willing to negotiate a formula to remove the leadership it heads from power. Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The US executive considers that the Cuban economy is on the verge of collapse.
According to WSJ, although Washington recognizes that there is no specific plan for an overthrow at the moment, some US officials value that the capture of Maduro and the concessions of the new Venezuelan government led by Chavistas may be a way to explore to achieve changes in Cuba.
After the military action carried out in Caracas, President Trump made a “suggestion” to the Cuban Government, accompanied by a warning. The president confirmed that there would be no more Venezuelan oil for the island, and urged its leaders to reach an agreement before it was “too late.”
Trump warns the Cuban Government that it will not receive more oil or money from Venezuela
The publication’s sources assure that there have been meetings with Cuban exiles and civic groups in Miami and Washington, focused on identifying someone within the current government willing to negotiate given the seriousness of the situation.
Threat
Although the Trump Administration has not publicly announced that its strategy with Cuba involves an action similar to the one carried out against Venezuela on January 3, some of its senior officials have hinted that it should serve as a warning for the current government of the island.
However, the media indicates that for now US intelligence analysts seem more willing to wait for The cutoff of Venezuela’s oil supply aggravates the crisis in Cuba and that this triggers a negotiating process, with some member of the current government structure piloting the process.
In addition to cutting off the island’s main energy support until recently, the United States has also focused its strategy on weaken the role of Cuban medical brigades in several nations of the continentone of the most vigorous sources of foreign currency income for the economy.
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close the fence
In the midst of the current circumstances, Trump and his inner circle, with strong ties and interests in the state of Florida, consider that overthrowing the current Cuban Government would be “the test that will definitively underpin his national security strategy to remake the hemisphere.”
In a recent statement, the State Department stated that it is in the national security interest of the United States that Cuba “be governed competently by a democratic government and that it refuses to host the military and intelligence services of our adversaries,” the publication recalls.
White House officials, cited by WSJ, said that Trump rejects regime change strategies used in the past and that he “seek[s]to reach agreements whenever possible, taking advantage of opportunities as they arise,” the publication states.
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However, the president would be preventing an overthrow from generating some type of turbulence and humanitarian crisis in the region, something that he tried to contain in Venezuela by keeping the main Chavista leaders in power.
Due to this misgiving, WSJ assures, the United States would be designing a clear plan about what will happen next and who could replace the current regime, although the experts themselves consider that the Venezuelan model may be more difficult to replicate in Cuba.
“These guys are a much tougher nut to crack,” considers Ricardo Zúñiga, a former Obama administration official who participated in the negotiations for the brief rapprochement between the United States and Cuba between 2014 and 2017.
From his point of view, “there is no one who feels tempted to collaborate with the United States,” he added, quoted by the media.
Cuba, object of desire
In addition to Trump’s goal of ending the Havana regime as part of his legacy, it is also a declared objective of the current Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, son of Cuban immigrants who arrived in the United States in 1956.
In Miami, the epicenter of immigrants and opposition to the island’s rulers, the changes in Venezuela were always seen as the prelude to the overthrow of the Cuban regime, which is why Maduro’s dismissal has been accepted with joy and expectations have skyrocketed.
Díaz-Canel says that “with coercion” there will be no understanding or negotiation with the US
However, in the so-called exile they recognize that in almost seven decades Cuba has rejected any substantial change in its political system, and has only introduced some reforms on the economic level.
Following the events in Caracas, and at the reception of the remains of 32 Cubans who died on January 3, President Díaz-Canel assured that “there is no possibility of surrender or capitulation, nor any type of understanding based on coercion or intimidation.”
