Michelle BekkeringDeputy Secretary of Foreign Agricultural Trade and Affairssaid it without surroundings:
Strengthening export opportunities for American farmers and agribusiness is an absolute priority
The Mexican appetite for the products of the American countryside not only grows, it is sophisticated. The expansion of the upper middle class, the taste acquired by brands of the North and the constant search for quality place Mexico on fertile terrain for the agriculture of the United States.
Between 2020 and 2024, consumer -oriented exports increased more than 75%, with a catalog that diversifies and adapts to the local palate.
Corn and pork lead the United States agricultural sales to Mexico and together concentrate more than a quarter of the total.
Read too: How much avocado exports Mexico to the United States?
Put the eye on various products
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipates strong export opportunities for its expansion in Mexico in several products of products, including beef, birds and related products, dairy products, seafood, nuts, pet food, baking ingredients and processing food.
There are also additional opportunities for American products such as rice, legumes, planting potatoes and livestock genetics.
The USDA knows. Mexico already displaced China as the second largest buyer of the American agriculture. Therefore, Washington enlists for November the new mission in Mexico City seeks more meetings, technical visits and agreements that consolidate that leadership.
Barriers for Mexico
But on the other side of the wall, the doors become narrower. The 17% anti -dumping tariff From July 14, an industry with 3.7 million tons annually shook. Of that total, Mexico exports 2 million, almost all to the United States. Only in 2024, sales reached 3,161 million dollars. Sinaloa leads the shipment, followed by Sonora, Jalisco and Baja California.
The Mexican tomato covers 70% of consumption in the United States and holds almost 50,000 jobs in that country. The new tax was justified by alleged dumping, the end of the suspension agreement signed in 2019 and an alleged “material affectation” to the local industry. The accusation reopened the commercial war, this time from the shelves of the supermarket.
The hitting the tomato preceded another bad news. On July 9, the USDA ordered the immediate closure of the passage of Mexican cattle after detecting a new outbreak of the New World Barrenader worm in Veracruz. The reopening, scheduled for the summer, was suspended. Mexico proposed a regionalization to export from parasite states, but Washington demanded progress in the outbreak of the outbreak.
The National Agricultural Council estimates losses for 400 million dollars this year. Each unleashed head leaves a loss of up to 500 dollars. Restrictions immobilize hundreds of thousands of animals.
A general tariff threat
The tension grows amid warnings. Donald Trump has the agriculture under threat of tariffs. In March he asked the great farmers in his country to prepare to produce more, but to sell within the United States. Although it still does not concrete, its legal team explores the possibility of imposing general tariffs on the sector.
The threat revives the trauma of 2018, when a commercial war with China forced the White House to distribute 28,000 million dollars in agricultural subsidies. Only 8% of tariff income remained as a real benefit. The rest was diluted between losses, reprisals and reconfigured markets.
An analysis of the Federal Reserve of Kansas City warns. Any alteration in agricultural trade with Mexico, Canada or China could erode rural income and shoot consumer prices.
Mexico supplies 20% of the consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables from the United States and Canada supplies essential fertilizers. A tariff on fresh products would have lasting effects. In processed foods, the damage would be brief, but direct. The exhibition is total. Integration too.
The Think Tank Mexico How are we going? It points out that the link between Mexico and the United States is not limited to the supply trade. It extends to production chains. The western medium wheat crosses the border, bakes in Monterrey and returns turned into Oreo cookies. Idaho’s barley travels to Jalisco, ferments and returns in crown or model bottles.
At both ends there are jobs, industries, taxes, logistics.
The USDA insists that its expansion strategy responds to the logic of the T-MEC, the seasonal complementarity and the growing demand for premium foods. But the balance is tense. The most integrated sectors are also the most vulnerable. The threat of tariffs, health crises and electoral pressure place agriculture in a mined field.
