For almost two decades, first with NAFTA and then with its successor, the T-MECthe region consolidated an agricultural ecosystem that exceeds 285,000 million dollars.
The opening tripled the value of agri-food trade between the three countries, and transformed Mexico and Canada into decisive platforms for grains, seeds, meat, dairy and processed products. The bloc functions as a strategic corridor in a world marked by geopolitical tensions and market distortions.
The message from the associations sent to the United States Trade Representative leaves no doubt:
Trade cooperation between the United States, Mexico and Canada offers multiple benefits, which underscores the need to respect and maintain the text of the USMCA as it was drafted, without major modifications. Building on previous trade facilitation initiatives.
Among the voices stand out the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Corn Growers Association, the US Dairy Export Council, the National Milk Producers Federation and CropLife America.
Mexico, the most important
The agricultural map exhibits a reality that defines the American position. Almost three-quarters of United States agricultural exports to Mexico are made up of cereals, legumes, oilseeds, meat and derived products. In all these categories, the United States maintains a significant surplus, demonstrating the success of the agreement for its farmers.
The explanation lies in the Mexican productive structure. Mexico does not produce enough grains and oilseeds to meet domestic demand, so its food and livestock producers import considerable volumes of these inputs to produce value-added products, such as meat, vegetable oil, and wheat products intended primarily for the domestic market.
The T-MEC strengthened this relationship that already had momentum with NAFTA. Before its entry into force, US exports to Mexico ranged between 17,000 and 19,000 million dollars. When the deal went live on July 1, 2020, sales stood at 18.34 billion. A year later they rose to 25,470 million and closed 2024 at 30,190 million.
The magnitude of the link leaves no room for doubt. Mexico is the United States’ largest agricultural trading partner in combined exports and imports, closely followed by Canada.
In 2024, Mexico represented 17.1% of US agricultural exports and 22.8% of imports.
The benefit is not unilateral, since Mexico also capitalizes on the agreement. Mexican agricultural exports to the United States reached 48,630 million dollars in 2024. In 2020 they totaled 32,920 million, which implies an increase of 1.4 times.
About 73% of U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico consist of vegetables, fruits, beverages and liquors, a list of products tied to Mexico’s experience in intensive agriculture, the popularity of goods such as beer, tequila and avocado, and growing seasons that complement those of the United States.
In winter, when the American countryside shuts down, Mexico supplies.
A great concern
The defense of the American agricultural sector is not limited to numbers; It also appeals to the fact that the T-MEC established a sanitary and phytosanitary framework that reduced regulatory uncertainty. Agricultural biotechnology advanced with more transparent processes and criteria based on scientific evidence.
These regulations avoided technical barriers that in other markets slow down exports and alter logistics chains. Additionally, they sustained the profitability of rural communities that depend on narrow incomes and long investment cycles.
The associations warn that any weakening of the agreement could make transportation more expensive, multiply border procedures and affect access to Mexico and Canada, which absorb a substantial part of US exports.
In their positioning, the unions insist that the sector cannot depend on political signals subject to electoral cycles. Agriculture advances with long horizons. A producer who invests in machinery, irrigation systems or additional capacity needs stable conditions for several years.
Furthermore, the trilateral alliance that consolidated the USMCA allows North America to compete strongly against actors that do not respect global standards in sanitary and phytosanitary measures or in agricultural biotechnology, or that operate without a genuine private sector.
As the United States faces emerging threats from actors seeking influence with economic coercion tactics, its agri-food chains are exposed to retaliation that can disrupt the global demand on which farmers depend.
For example, a front that worries American producers is that there are no new sales of soybeans from the United States to China and not a single shipment is expected to be loaded in the coming weeks, according to information from the American Soybean Association and the US Soybean Export Council.
The harvest is not directed to export centers and remains stored in productive areas. The stoppage threatens farmers’ incomes and some could face financial collapse if the situation does not change.
The final diagnosis leaves no room for ambiguity. Renegotiating or weakening the USMCA would be a strategic mistake at a time when North America faces more aggressive competitors and more unstable markets.
