The photograph left by the second quarter of 2025 for the Colombian economy has a central fact and that is that the gross domestic product (GDP) grew an annual 2.1%, according to the preliminary figures of the DANE, which is a lower advance than expected, which was supported by consumption and some services, but in The fact that two historical growth engines became a true brake for economic activity.
It is about the exploitation of mines and quarries and construction, two lines of the economy that beyond being guilty of slow growth, are the result of the policies promoted by President Gustavo Petro to support renewable energy, and the effects of the end of several important subsidies, due to the fiscal crisis.
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With regard to the first, the balance of the statistical authority indicates that registered a 10.2% drop compared to the same period of 2024; with a generalized decrease in coal (-14.6%), metal minerals (-20%) and oil and gas (-6.9%). Thus, these activities complete more than a year between high and low, which have paralyzed an entire industry since Petro came to power.
Two off -off engines
This was a setback that, according to the president of the Colombian Mining Association, Juan Camilo Nariño, should not be taken lightly, since it is closely related to an environment of restrictive regulations and a climate of uncertainty that discourages the investment.
GDP in Colombia advances slower than analysts and investors expect.
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“The result is less employment, Less development and less competitiveness, especially in the most vulnerable regions, ”he warned.
In the case of construction, the contraction was 3.5% per year. Within the sector, the construction of residential and non -residential buildings collapsed 9.7%, affected by the reduction of programs such as my house already, while only civil works showed a significant advance of 9.6%, driven by megaprojects such as the first line of the Bogotá Metro.
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For the president of the Andi, Bruce Mac Master, this reflects that the sector It has lost part of its ability to boost the economy through productive chains and employment, being sustained in a handful of specific projects.
It should not be overlooked that these two sectors have traditionally been pillars of GDP, generating income, employment and chains with other activities. However, the second quarter of this year showed that its low performance is having a negative net effect on growth.
The projections suggested that this indicator would be higher than it was finally seen.
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For analysts such as former Finance Minister José Manuel Restrepo, everything that happened can be summarized bluntly, reaffirming that “Colombia must aspire to grow much more. Mining and Construction cannot continue in negative terrain if we want to reach 3% per year. ”
Restrepo states that, in the case of construction, the elimination of subsidies to VIS and non -VIS housing (rate subsidy) has passed a expensive invoice, braking the housing market and private investment; while in Mining it warns about the need to stop stigmatizing the activity and see it as a key sector that can live with environmental standards.
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A broader panorama
Looking at the data in general, the president of Fenalco, Jaime Alberto Cabal, He stressed that 2.1% growth was below market expectations (between 2.6% and 3.2%) and the Bank of the Republic itself (more than 2.5%).
For him, the contraction in mining and construction is a central part of the explanation, stressing that the fall in buildings was so deep that neither the dynamism of civil works managed to compensate it, and that mining is still beaten, especially in coal and oil.
The projections suggested that this indicator would be higher than it was finally seen.
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The union vision coincides that the loss of dynamism of these sectors is not a conjunctural phenomenon, since mining accumulates a year and a half of falls, according to the Andi, and the construction drags several quarters of setbacks, affected by The slow recovery of investment in fixed capital, which in the second quarter barely grew 1.7%.
It must also be said that not everything is negative in the analysis and, for example, for the BBVA Research economist, Mauricio Hernández, although the quarterly GDP was 2.1%, some leading indicators show a stronger start in July, with rebounds in car sales, consumer confidence, construction and transportation licenses.
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From his perspective, “this could anticipate some recovery in construction, although it warns that there is a natural lag between licenses approval and the execution of works. The key will be that positive signals are consolidated and that non -traditional exports reside less than expected the new tariffs of the United States. ”
This expert also emphasizes that public spending must maintain its good rhythm of execution so as not to lose the impulse, given that some indicators such as civil works showed a slight improvement that can help the economy.
The projections suggested that this indicator would be higher than it was finally seen.
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Mixed results
Although mining and construction were no longer well, we must not overlook that other sectors showed solid performance in the second quarter of 2025, as was the case of trade, transport, accommodation and restoration; that 5.6%grew, promoted by a recovery of consumption and commercial strategies aggressive, which contributed more than one percentage point to the total growth of the gross domestic product.
He also highlighted the agricultural sector, which advanced 3.8% thanks to the strength of livestock and fishing, despite the fall in coffee; o The artistic, entertainment and recreation activities that grew 7.5%, consolidating its role as one of the emerging engines of the economy.
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Likewise, real estate activities have shown greater stability and Mario Ramírez, president of Fedelonjas, stressed that the sector grew by 2% in the first semester and in the second quarter, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP; Thanks to the best financial conditions and a lower cost of living compared to 2024, which has facilitated access to credit and the purchase of real estate.
In the front of the expense, domestic demand grew 4.2%, with a consumption of 3.7%rising households and an expenditure of the government that increased 3.9%. Within private consumption, durable and semi -midable goods recorded notable increases, while investment in machinery and equipment grew 11.6%, a sign that some productive sectors are committed to expanding and modernizing their installed capacity.
Consumption would be the protagonist of GDP growth.
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In this way, the conclusion is clear and points to that mining and construction have passed, for different reasons, to push to stop Colombia’s economic growth; while your recovery does not It is only desirable, but necessary for the country to aspire to higher and sustainable expansion rates.
Both investors and analysts and guilds argue that as long as that does not happen, the weight of their lag will continue to subtract the economy, limiting the potential of other sectors and leaving the task of keeping GDP afloat.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
