Last week, the Secretary of the Treasury, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, had said that, despite the “uncertain global outlook” and unless there were “a major global recession”, the Mexican economy will grow this year by more than 3%.
“With the data we have so far, there is probably a “soft landing” in the United States and that also leaves us in a good position,” added Mariscal, a key player in the preparation of the macroeconomic variables for the budget. national.
In contrast, on Thursday, the central bank (Banxico) stated in its minutes that “for the coming quarters it expects that the lower economic dynamism at the global level will have repercussions in lower rates of expansion of the national economic activity.”
Although he clarified that his unit is still collecting information to offer an official estimate, Mariscal added that many variables that the Treasury handled in 2022 ended up “closing” as he thought they were going to do. “In principle we should not review so much what is going to happen in 2023.”
The macroeconomic estimates released last year for 2023 anticipated that the economy would achieve annual growth of 3%.
Regarding 2024, the official considered it “complicated” for now to make forecasts for the presidential elections that will be held in Mexico and the United States that year, and due to the complex international context. “The more uncertainty in the world, the more difficult it is to forecast,” he argued.
It is also still early -he indicated- to know what impact “nearshoring” will have on local growth, the practice of moving factories from the country of origin to a nearby one where everything is cheaper in wages, energy, fuel and inputs, from which Mexico seeks to take advantage.
“It is something that we are seeing very strongly, but we have not yet had the ability to measure it well,” he explained. “How much is going to be seen right now in 2023 is very difficult to know.”
