In the days before second round of the presidential election in Uruguaya recent survey has revealed interesting information about voter perceptions of the candidates Yamandu Orsifrom the Broad Front, and Alvaro Delgadoof the National Party.
With more than 7,300 participants, the study carried out by the newspaper El Observador and academics from the University of the Republic, shows that Orsi has the support of 54.2% of the respondents, while Slimwho is from the PN, but represents the right-wing coalition, receives the support of 45%. A small percentage, 0.8%, did not express a clear preference.
Comparing these results with a previous survey, it is observed that in the previous measurement, 56.2% of those surveyed also considered Orsi as a probable winnerindicating a slight drop of two percentage points in popularity after this new evaluation.
The characteristics of the people surveyed
The analysis of opinions also reveals significant differences between voters. Almost all of those who opted for the Frente Amplio in the October elections trust that their candidate, Orsi, will be the future president. On the contrary, in the multicolor bloc, the majority considers that Delgado will emerge victorious, although the perception varies between the various parties in the coalition.
Political scientist Andreas Murr has delved into the phenomenon of “collective wisdom,” pointing out that by transferring individual predictions to a group context, the probability of a correct forecast can increase between 6 and 39 percentage points. This suggests that general consensus could be a more reliable indicator than isolated opinions.
Additionally, the survey revealed differences according to geographic location and gender. Montevideo remains a bastion of the Broad Frontwith a higher proportion of residents convinced that Orsi will be the winner. In the rural areasOn the contrary, many believe that Slim will take the victory, although the advantage is minimal.
The analysis shows that preference for the Frente Amplio has grown among women, who to a greater extent consider that Orsi will be the next president. Regarding the distribution by age, all age groups think that Orsi is the probable winner, except for those surveyed between 68 and 77 years old, who present divergent opinions.
The survey, carried out between November 6 and 11, was developed through a self-administered online form, sent by email and disseminated on WhatsApp, as well as on the medium’s social networks. This methodology allows for extensive data collection, although it also draws attention to the importance of understanding the social dynamics that influence voting decisions.
