In the middle of a growing exchange tension that led to dollar Officer to exceed $ 1,300, the Argentine Government implemented a series of measures with the aim of stabilizing the market without resorting to the direct sale of reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA).
These actions, which combine monetary tools, financial operations and indirect intervention strategies, seek to contain the volatility of the dollar and send predictability signs to economic actors. One of the main maneuvers of the BCRA was the return to passive passes operations, offering liquidity to one day with an annual nominal rate of 35%.
This tool, which had been previously dismissed by the economic team for implying issues of pesos to cover interest, was reactivated intermittently to absorb monetary surpluses and avoid additional pressures on the exchange rate.
The rate rise meets a double purpose: on the one hand, it acts as a nominal anchor to contain inflation expectations; On the other, the demand for dollars discourages by making plates more attractive in pesos.
However, economists warn that this rate level begins to negatively affect financing, with an increase in delinquency indicators for both people and companies. Another tool used by the BCRA was the intervention in the dollar futures market, where the monetary authority increased its USD 1,900 million to about USD 4,800 million in July.
This strategy allows to influence exchange rate expectations without compromising reservations, since contracts are settled in pesos. Participation in this market seeks to moderate devaluation expectations and contain speculative demand.
Shopping
However, some analysts point out that this intervention raises questions about the consistency of the current monetary regime, which is based on the control of aggregates and an administered flotation.
From the Ministry of Economy, headed by Luis Caputo, a “ant” currency shopping strategy was implemented in the market, accumulating some USD 1.5 billion in the last 35 days. These acquisitions are made outside the open market, in the Senebi segment (electronic bilateral negotiation system), which allows to avoid visible pressures on the exchange rate.
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