Due to the drought, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) made a new cut of 2.5 million tons in the estimate of soybean production in the 2022-2023 campaign, from 37 million to 34.5 million tons. , the lowest volume of the last 14 campaigns.
It also adjusted the corn crop forecast downward by 7.5 million tons, from the originally projected 50 million tons to 42.5 million tons today.
In the same vein, andThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) -in his monthly report on world grain supply and demand- pProjected a decrease of 4.5 million tons in the Argentine soybean harvest -from 45.5 million to 41 million tons-, while in the case of corn, the expected decline is around 5 million tons, from 52 million to 47 million tons.
The BCR report warned that the soy “keep showing the impact of the worst drought in the last 60 years in Argentina and the lack of a forceful response from the climate to put an end to the losses”.
According to the analysis of the Rosario stock exchange, “the February cut is of a 7% compared to the figure for January, going from 37 million to 34.5 million tons”, which makes it the worst campaign since the 2008/09 cycle to date, when oilseed production was 31.8 million tons.
Even the production projection for the 2022-2023 campaign is below the record for the 2017/18 cycle, when the last great drought that the country experienced occurred.
“Unfortunately, as warned in January, a strong adjustment of area losses was made, especially in second-rate soybeans. The 504,000 hectares of that time are updated to 1 million hectares. The province of Buenos Aires heads the list of lost area with 301,000 hectares. Followed by Córdoba, with 222,000; and Santa Fe, with 160,000 hectares”, detailed the Rosario Stock Exchange.
With these new numbers, the stock exchange entity said that “There will be 18% less harvest than a year ago, when it was also affected by the lack of water”, and pointed out that “the national yield has decreased from 24 quintals per hectare in January to 23 in February”.
The USDA report, For its part, it modified for the first time considerably the oilseed production estimate for Argentina, with a 4.5 million ton cutwith which the harvest of the current campaign rwould wave 41 million tons.
Thus, the new forecast is located 2.9 million tons below what was produced in the 2021/22 campaign and 1.3 million tons lower than the forecasts made by the market.
The USDA ralso reduced the export projection of the bean Argentine from 5.7 to 4.2 million tons.
Similar situation for corn
on the corn sidethe BCR pointed out that “of the 50 million tons that were projected with a normal scenario, the weather cut 15% of the production in the first estimate of corn.”
“After a momentary relief, Argentina continues to suffer a very delicate scenario (due to the drought). are given for losses 7.5 million tons of corn and it is estimated that with 42.5 million it will be the worst Argentine harvest of the last five yearss”, according to the Strategic Guide for Agriculture (GEA).
In terms of render of yellow grainthe stock exchange maintained that “with 64.1 quintals per hectare, it is the fourth worst mark in 15 years despite the enormous technological leap of the crop, the increasing doses of fertilization and the unprecedented fact that late plantings occupy almost 75% of the national sowing area”.
USDAfor his part, cut 5 million tons of corn -from 52 million to 47 million tons- the production of yellow beans in Argentina.
To this was also added a reduction in forecast corn exports by 3 million tons, therefore, foreign sales would be around 35 million tons this campaign.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) will publish its weekly production estimate this Thursdayin which it is also discounted that there could be new cuts.
Based on the latest report from the Buenos Aires stock exchange, the projected soybean harvest for the current campaign is 41 million tons and 44.5 million tons in the case of corn.
