Madrid/Moscow is preparing to send oil to Cuba, although caution is maximum. Sources from the Russian Embassy in Havana they counted to Izvestiaone of the country’s largest circulation newspapers, that “soon, it is planned to supply oil and derivatives as humanitarian aid”, without specifying when it will do so. The media has consulted with several analysts who put on the table the consequences that such a decision could have for the Eurasian giant: the same ones that are leading other allies of Havana not to take it.
One of the experts interviewed, Nikolai Dudchenko, from Finam Financial Group, states that in 2025 Cuba imported an average of 37,000 barrels per day from various sources (essentially Venezuela and Mexico). Izvestia quote the arrival a year ago now Akademik Gubkin – loaded with some 790,000 barrels, valued at 55 million dollars – as “the last large shipment” to the Island, purchased with the state loan of 60 million dollars approved by the Russian authorities. “If the volume remains the same now, with the authorities’ previous requests when the crisis was not so serious, it would be enough for only 19 or 20 days,” the expert calculates.
However, the media does not mention that the Akademik Gubkin returned in september of 2025 with a similar amount to that of February and neither to jasper, that arrived in Matanzas in December with about 330,000 barrels. This last tanker, sanctioned by the European Union, was able to reach the Island without the US opposingsomething that attracted attention at that time, since in those days several sanctioned oil tankers transporting Venezuelan crude oil were seized. One of them, the Skipperwas going to China – after a stopover in Cuba – to resell the product to the Asian country on behalf of the state-owned Cubametales.
“If the volume remains the same now, with the authorities’ previous requests when the crisis was not so serious, it would be enough for only 19 or 20 days”
This is one of the main fears, especially since what happened with the Bella-1the tanker who changed his name to Sailor and its flag to Russia to try to avoid the US siege. That ship, used to transport hydrocarbons from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, He was arrested after two weeks of manhunt and despite the escort sent by Moscow, which brought a submarine closer for protection. The ship was empty when it was seized, as it never made it to Venezuela, and its crew was detained. An agreement between Trump and Putin later facilitated the release of at least two Russian workers.
Igor Yushkov, an analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, told Izvestia that this can be a very relevant factor when thinking about whether or not to send oil to the Island. Although there is another: “Given the budget deficit, it is unlikely that Moscow will simply supply fuel to Havana,” he stated.
Asked about this issue, the Kremlin said this Thursday that it does not fear an imposition of tariffs: “We would not want any escalation, but, on the other hand, today we have almost no time for commercial exchange,” said Dmitri Peskov, who added: “All these days we speak at different levels, we are in contact with Cuban friends and we deal with the variants to help them.”
The Russian media, for its part, raises another question. January 1, 2025 Cuba officially became an associate member of the Brics group – along with 12 other countries – which could provide it with other support. However, “strong energy support should not be expected” on their part, he emphasizes. Izvestia.
The United Arab Emirates is one of those that, in principle, would have no problems sending oil to Cuba, but two of the group’s largest partners, China and India, are oil importers themselves, so they would be ruled out. On the other hand, Viktor Kheifets, interviewed for the report, remembers that the Brics do not function as a military bloc, “so a consolidated response to international threats is not yet on their priority agenda.” As an example, it is worth remembering that in the face of the military attack on Iran in 2025 they did not even take a position, beyond some declaration of rejection, despite the fact that the Persian country was a full member of the bloc, not like Cuba.
The threats of imposition of tariffs weigh, especially for Brazil, the closest partner but which, at the same time, has intense commercial activity with the United States. In 2024, the North American country imported imports worth 40,368 million dollars, but in 2025 the amount dropped to 37.72 billion for the 50% tariffs that Trump imposed on Brazil.
The threats of imposition of tariffs weigh, especially for Brazil, the closest partner but which, at the same time, has intense commercial activity with the United States.
For the president, Luiz Inázcio Lula da Silva, it was not easy to negotiate an agreement with Washington, which intended to impose another 40% extra for Jair Bolsonaro’s coup conviction. Finally, Donald Trump backed down and both leaders sealed an agreement that would make it difficult for Lula da Silva to risk for Cuba, despite the fact that pressure is growing in his country for him to act.
Venezuela, the historical ally, has just almost definitively closed the door after its agreement with the United States. In addition, the United States Department of the Treasury has issued a license that allows the export, sale, storage and refining of oil in the Caribbean country to legal entities registered in the United States, while prohibiting transactions with people from Russia, Iran, North Korea and Cuba.
For its part, Mexico continues to announce that it is studying how to continue with its oil deliveries, but the threats from the United States have led the president, Claudia Sheinbaum, to send more food and essential products, such as the one that is expected to arrive this Thursday and the next, announced by the president, shortly.
Russia, for now, assures that studies how to repatriate the 4,000 tourists stranded on the island and stop flights while the situation calms down, although the Russian Embassy in Cuba told Izvestia that the travelers themselves are in no hurry.
“No evacuation measures are planned. Unfortunately, power outages in Cuba are not a new phenomenon; their frequency and duration depend on the availability of fuel at local power plants and the functioning of the national energy system,” he said.
However, the Ministry of Economic Development recommended Russian tourists not to visit Cuba, tour operators suspended the sale of trips and the Association of Tour Operators it started this thursday to recommend alternatives to the Island: Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam and Hainan (China).
