From EPN’s amnesty to Sheinbaum’s
The most recent precedent was the repatriation program implemented in 2017, when more than 5,000 taxpayers returned more than 385,000 million pesos to the country from abroad. They paid a preferential rate of 8% and obtained administrative facilities, under the argument that the resources would be used for productive investment.
According to the Superior Audit of the Federation, the program raised a little more than 20,000 million pesos, but most of that money did not reach the real economy. More than 80% was placed in financial instruments, shares or bank deposits, while only 1% was directed to the purchase of fixed assets. In addition, more than 900 taxpayers did not report how they used the funds, which prevented nearly 19 billion pesos from being traced.
It is reasonable to encourage the return of capital, but only if it is guaranteed that these resources are truly invested and not used as a new financial refuge.
Luis Alberto Romero, director of Rofa Legal & Tax
Furthermore, at that time, “it was a discretionary amnesty without controls, as well as unconstitutional, because the Executive does not have the power to reduce tax rates by decree,” Benumea explained, recalling that Peña Nieto’s program left no accountability or impact evaluation, in addition to the fact that it was issued by decree. A vice that the current proposal of the 2026 Economic Package avoids.
The risk of rewarding the unfulfilled again
Although the current proposal expands the sectors where resources could be invested – infrastructure, technological innovation or energy transition – specialists fear that the pattern of 2017 will be repeated. Benumea considers that nothing guarantees that the money will not end up again in financial instruments that contribute little to employment or production.
“If we look at what happened before, it is most likely that the resources will once again be placed in financial instruments and not in projects that generate employment or technology,” said the researcher.
Fundar proposes that the government establish firm locks to prevent recidivism. Among them, preventing those who benefited from the 2017 amnesty from accessing the program again, publishing the list of beneficiaries and applying exhaustive supervision to companies and individuals who decide to regularize their capital.
“The SAT should identify those who benefit from this scheme and intensively review all their operations. The minimum is to guarantee that they cannot benefit from future amnesties,” he added.
An uncomfortable measure for the 4T narrative
The repatriation policy proposed for 2026 clashes with the fiscal justice discourse that the current government has promoted since its inception. The measure seeks to obtain liquidity and promote investment, but also reopens the debate on the equity and credibility of the tax system.
“With these types of measures, the Mexican tax system sends the message that there are different rules for those who have the most. The common citizen complies with rates of up to 35%, while large capitals obtain special discounts,” Luis Alberto Romero, director of Rofa Legal & Tax, said in a statement.
Benumea also recalled that, after Peña Nieto’s decree, there was no public report of results or evidence that the repatriated resources had generated jobs or new investment. Fundar estimates that the 2017 fiscal loss exceeded 63 billion pesos.
For organizations like Fundar, the key is not only in the amount of additional income, but in the way in which it is obtained and in the incentives that the State decides to reward.
From the stock market
Laura Martínez Martínez, president of the Fiscal Subcommittee of the Mexican Association of Stock Exchange Institutions, recognized the government’s effort to encourage the return of licit capital, although she warned that the initiative no longer allows these resources to be channeled through Mexican financial institutions, as in 2017.
He pointed out that returning to this path would strengthen the program, provide greater security and link the repatriated funds with productive projects and with Plan Mexico.
