“What this can cause in public finances, in the lowest cost of debt is still very marginal, these 50 base points mean only about 16.9 billion pesos less, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance,” said Ricardo Cantú, associate income and debt researcher at the Economic and Budgetary Research Center (CIEP).
The general economic policy criteria 2025 refer that 100 base points of the reference interest rate equals 33,800 million pesos. In the same document, the Treasury indicates that its perspective for the end of the year of the rate is 8%, that is, that if this expectation is met, 200 points would decrease throughout the year in front of the rate reported at the end of 2024 that It was 10%.
This decrease would represent 67.6 billion, which barely means 5.87% of the entire financial cost that was paid in 2024 that was for 1,150 billion pesos, the highest amount than you have recorded.
The decline of the Banxico rate will not lead to reduce the commitments Financial of the country, as different factors must be raffled so that the balance of public debt decreases in proportion of GDP, for example, allocate greater resources for public investment to boost the economy and detonate investments for greater collection of the ISR; Encourage consumption to raise more taxes such as VAT and IEPS, Cantú explained.
The composition of the federal public sector debt plays in this metric, because although more than 80% of the debt is internal, the rest is external debt, explained Tamón Takahashi, Chief Economist of Tka Analytica, an analysis center, research, research and development of ideas.
“There is the positive part for the federal debt due to the decline of the rate, but not at 100 because it has a proportion in foreign debt. This part that is in another currency will be affected by other factors, such as the depreciation of the weight, which also affects you by the part of the oil income.
“These income arrive in dollars, the fact that the dollar is getting more expensive will affect because when selling crude you sell it in pesos, they pay you in dollars and they give you less and less dollars, so it is an issue that can Press public finances, ”explained Takahashi.
Besides, There are still risks to inflationand therefore, pauses in the decrease in the interest rate, and a more depreciated weight, for external risks, such as the application of tariffs to Mexican shipments by the United States government, specialists agree.
“In the end what we are waiting for is that what was raised in the 2025 economic package is fulfilled, which would imply that the debt would not increase. If the interest rate decreases, in the refinancing that can be done, they could have an still high financial cost.
“This, because the rates have decreased, but a restrictive monetary policy is maintained. The refinancing that are also made are debt that still had low interest rates,” said Janneth Quiroz, director of analysis of Monex.
So, “the financial cost can gradually lower, but we really do not expect the debt to exceed the estimates that were raised, in the 2025 budget even though the interest rates decrease,” Quiroz added.
