The very likely rise in interest rates in the United States by the Federal Reserve (FED), the victory of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as president of Brazil, the increase in inflation in the Eurozone and the internal noise related to the ecopetrol board of directors caused a sharp rise in the price of the dollar.
(Read: Rate hike helps calm the dollar, according to Minhacienda).
currency in the market Colombian bank closed at $4,938data that represented an increase of $103 compared to Friday’s close.
The opening price of the greenback was 4,880, it registered a minimum of $4,870 and the maximum reached $4,944.
For its part, the average price was $4,899.
Trading volume barely exceeded US$1,032 million, below the annual average of US$1,154 million.
However, analysts say that the market is waiting for a definition of the future of new oil and gas exploration in Colombia.
On the other hand, the Representative Market Rate (official dollar) for this Tuesday was $4,898.74 rate compared to yesterday, which was $4,819.42 recorded an increase of $79.32.
Arnoldo Casas, Investment Director of Asset Management at Credicorp Capital, considers that the increase registered by the currency yesterday is that “the issue of the change of the president of the Board of Ecopetrol reawakens a feeling that the market already brought”.
Additionally, he said that “the other thing is that this week we have a FED meeting and clearly there are expectations of an increase and therefore the DXY dollar index (index of the most representative currencies in the world against the dollar) also had a general rebound”.
(Also: Will digital adoption in the country be affected by the rise in the dollar?).
For María Camila Gómez, country manager of Global 66 “it is difficult to identify a specific trend that supports the rise of the Colombian peso against the US dollar. We have had about 6 months of great volatility and, without a doubt, it continues to consolidate itself as one of the strongest and most stable currencies in the world economy. However, this phenomenon is not the result of a single factor. We are experiencing what we can call the butterfly effect”.
He assured that one of the factors, “are the new political conditions that arrive in the country just at the exact moment in which multiple macro elements enter into an equation, whose result in the face of exchange rate impacts, remains to be seen. From that point of view, it is likely that at least until the results of the 2022 inflation come out in the US, we will not be able to glimpse the direction of the currency, nor analyze it against the local environment.”
A Bancolombia report mentioned that the behavior of the currency was catalyzed by a risk aversion environment.
Indeed, according to the most recent estimate of federal funds rate futures, there would be 97.7% of probabilities for an increase of 75 basic points in the meeting of the central bank of the USA (FED) on Wednesday.
(See: Dollar is approaching the ‘floor’ of $4,800, what has changed?).
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