The price of wheat in Uruguay adjusted to the axis of US$ 300 per ton in line with the drop in grain in the Chicago market. After five weeks of decline, the price of wheat fell 15% from US$330 to US$279 due to abundant supplies from the European Union and Russia and the increases forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the exports from Australia and Ukraine.
Wheat found a floor for the price, as a consequence of the solid weekly sales data and the new cut in Argentine production, affected by the drought.
- The Rosario Stock Exchange reduced the expectation of the current harvest from 11.8 to 11.5 million tons, half that of 2021/2022.
- The USDA lowered its forecast for the Argentine harvest from 15.5 to 12.5 million tons and exports from 10 to 7.5 million.
John Samuelle
Wheat harvest in Young’s fields.
Colza, below US$ 500
Rapeseed, which closed a record harvest in Uruguay and has already begun to be exported to European destinations, moves away from the line of US$ 500 and was placed this week at US$ 485. The world crop recovers with growth in Canada and a larger area planted in Europe.
Soybeans stopped their rise in Chicago and adjusted to the range of US$ 530 due to the downward impact of the new rate increases by both the US FED and the European Central Bank, as well as the impact of the rains in producing areas of Brazil and Argentina.
The climatic factor should lead to a strengthening of soybeans later on since the situation in Argentina has only a partial improvement. The neighboring country has placed 3.5 million tons under the “Dollar Soja 2” program, and has just extended the export of corn due to a shortage of stock and delay in planting.
One factor that may begin to weigh on the soybean market is the large Brazilian harvest. The USDA maintained its expectation for the soybean crop in Brazil at 152 million tons and the calculation of exports at 89.50 million. The National Supply Commission (Conab) projects 153.5 million and exports at 96.6 million.
Brazil would increase its soybean production by 22% this year and its corn production by 11% compared to last season.
Despite the difficulties of cultivation in Argentina, the USDA maintained its production forecast at 49.50 million tons.
Paraguay’s harvest was also maintained at 10 million tons and China’s import forecast remained at 98 million tons.
Brazil, with a production that was raised from 9.40 to 9.50 million tons, matches the production of Argentina.
The amount
30% is the proportion of the 2022/23 soybean harvest sold by Brazilian producers, when at this time they usually exceed 45% (uncertainty due to the exchange rate slows down taking positions).
