The PLD could play to maintain second place, an opposition alliance or preserve the brand by 2028
Just over two years before the 2024 presidential elections, the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) does not seem to have a unified strategy of which way to go in the 2020 elections and what it does will define the opposition’s chances of electoral success against to the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM).
The neutrality before the projects of presidential candidates exhibited by the majority of the members of the Political Committee, is a sign that none of those who aspire to lead the ballot has proposed an electoral strategy that clarifies the path to follow in the face of 2024.
Of the 45 members of the organization’s Political Committee, more than 50% have not given public support to any of the candidates. 19 of them are with one of the presidential projects and four aspire to the presidential candidacy, while the rest seem indifferent.
Of those 19, seven publicly support Margarita Cedeño, although José Ramón Peralta is said to be the main supporter of her project, but has not given public support to the former vice president.
Abel Martínez has 5 and Francisco Domínguez Brito with the same number.
From the speech of the leadership of the PLD, three approaches to participation are observed: fighting to maintain second place, this approach is observed in the members of the leadership who have assumed presidential projects; Second, consider an alliance with the entire political opposition and remove the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) from power. Carlos Amarante Baret is the main promoter of that idea. And others bet on keeping the PLD regardless of the position it can achieve in the presidential elections of May 2024.
Battle 2nd. place would win PRM
The main bet of the candidates to lead the opposition party’s presidential ticket is to go to the elections with a second round planned and that the PLD can retain the second place it achieved in the last elections. The greatest virtue of this strategy is that it would allow the survival of the PLD brand as a strong party in the electoral arena, in the event that it achieves second position and fails to defeat the PRM and win the elections. What are the real chances of achieving that goal? To answer that question, another question must be asked: What do the PLD supporters want, between preserving the brand and structure with no chance of victory or returning to power regardless of whether they do it in the PLD brand or the FP?
The PLD is the second political force. In 2020 he achieved 37% with his allies and 32% in the purple box. The organization that is now disputing the second position is the People’s Force (FP), which in 2020 was in a distant third place with 8.9% with the allies and 5.69% in the green box. As the scenario is today, the PLD will get fewer votes than in 2020 and that is losing.
The point is that since the PLD left power, politically speaking, it has only lost and the FP has won. The purple brand was affected from power and after his departure, the situation has worsened due to the submission to justice accused of corruption of relatives and close collaborators of the leader and president of the organization, Danilo Medina.
In addition to the damage to the image, another permanent problem in the PLD is the departure of leaders to the FP. To retain second place, the opposition organization faces another problem, according to their own leaders: none of the candidates to lead the ballot has more voting intentions than the brand, and the brand is very affected.
In the last Gallup poll that was published, Leonel Fernández, leader of the FP and almost certainly a candidate of that party, appears as leader of the opposition.
The FP looks constantly growing due to the arrival of leaders of the purple party and also has a leader, a defined candidate who, according to private comments, is in second place in voting intention with more than 30%. With this reality, it is difficult for the PLD to retain second place, although circumstances may change.
The benchmark for what happens when two parties concentrate on competing for second place occurred in the 2000 elections. In those elections, the vote that gave the PLD victory in 1996 was divided. The PRSC and the PLD fought for the second position, the PRSC obtained 24% and the PLD, 25%. The Dominican Revolutionary Party obtained 49.7% and won in the first round. It is very likely that if the PLD and FP go to a joust for second position, the PRM will win in the first round, that is the main risk of that strategy.
For the PLD to achieve this project, it would need all its machinery and leadership pushing in this direction, and a good thermometer will be the attitude of the veteran leaders who have remained low profile until now.
opposition alliance
There are some leaders of the purple party who see little chance of victory in the 2024 elections, but are committed to preserving the organization for 2028. Recent statements by the PLD secretary general, Charlie Mariotti, against the FP, were seen with that focus on both PLD and FP.
The candidate for the presidential candidacy, Abel Martínez, the day after these statements, without making direct reference, criticized the attacks on the opposition. For this strategy, the PLD does not want the FP to win, since it absorbs it from power, as happened to the PRD with the PRM.
An opposing alliance, and who heads it?
In sectors of the opposition, the idea of an opposition alliance to confront the PRM is being entertained. In the PLD, the main promoter of this project is Carlos Amarante Baret.
The problem with this proposal is to define who would contribute the presidential candidacy between the PLD and Fuerza del Pueblo.
The most veteran politicians seem neutral now, it remains to be seen if as time goes on and the organization’s presidential candidacy is defined, they assume greater activism.
But those who defend that idea within the purple party would be being attacked by those who prefer another strategy because supposedly that approach takes the purple party out of the game by 2024.
