According to its latest provisional economic outlook, a slowdown in domestic demand is being observed, which will persist until next year.
“Domestic demand has boosted activity in Brazil, India and Indonesia, but has slowed in Mexico, where the services sector has lost momentum,” notes the OECD.
In what corresponds to the Mexico inflationexpects it to be 4.5% in 2024 and 3% in 2025. The organization revised upward the growth forecast for the world economy to 3.2%, 0.1 points more than its previous forecast in a context of decreasing inflation.
The organization revised upward the growth forecast for the world economy to 3.2%, 0.1 points more than its previous forecast in a context of decreasing inflation.
“Growth was relatively strong in many G20 countries, especially in the United States, Brazil, India, Indonesia and the United Kingdom,” the Paris-based organization writes in its quarterly economic outlook report.
The updated forecasts left the growth for 2024 of the main economies – the United States (2.6%) and China (4.9%) – unchanged, but revised downward that of Mexico (1.4%, -0.8) and predicted a greater contraction in Argentina, -4% of GDP.
However, these results, in a context of “resilient” growth and falling inflation, were “modest in a few economies” such as Germany – the European economic engine – and Argentina, where “production contracted”, clarified the OECD.
Of the first group, the OECD increased Brazil’s growth by one point, to 2.9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024, and that of the United Kingdom by 0.7 points (1.1%), compared to its latest forecasts in May.
Spain, the fourth largest economy in the euro zone and a permanent guest at the G20 meetings, would grow 2.8% (+1 point) this year; ahead of Germany (0.1%, -0.1 points), France (1.1%, +0.4) and Italy (0.8%, +0.1), according to the organization.
“Global GDP growth is expected to stabilize at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, accompanied by a further fall in inflation, an improvement in real incomes and a less restrictive monetary policy,” the report highlights.
In the G20 economies, global inflation would rise from 5.4% in 2024 to 3.3% in 2025. In Argentina, it would remain at high levels: at 147.5% and 46.7%, respectively.
In this context, the OECD advocated increasing wealth and environmental taxes to “improve the prospects for debt sustainability”, which has increased considerably in most developed countries.
With information from AFP
