Less than two days lasted the diplomatic crisis that was unleashed last weekend between the United States and Colombia, for the non -reception of two aircraft with deportees sent by the Trump government, and which was overcome thanks to the counterreloj race of the consular consular teams of both countries, which predicted The interests of both countries to the fight between Donald Trump and Gustavo Petro.
After the worst of the storm, economic analysts argue that this type of episodes leave many teachings, starting with the need to have cold head when talking about diplomatic relations and developing a holistic vision that puts on the table all pro and against A decision, before making any decision.
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María Claudia Lacouture, president of Amcham Colombia, concluded the agreement, which guaranteed the right to return to the country to deported persons and that there are no longer sanctions; He indicated that this fact leaves many lessons to learn about teamwork and the control of society to the use of power.
“While this crisis seems to be overcome, what happened must be a lesson to reinforce joint work between all sectors of society, in order to strengthen and preserve strategic relations between the two countries. Dialogue and cooperation must continue to be the basis of our bilateral relationship, ”he said.
Situation at the United States Embassy in Colombia
Mauricio Moreno / El Tiempo
Although the US government said that Colombia had accepted all The terms of deportation, warned that US sanctions on the local market would be maintained until the unrestricted reception “of all illegal foreigners in Colombia returned from the United States, even in US military planes, without limitation or delay” is fulfilled. .
Precisely the point of the return in military airplanes and under conditions that qualified as “humiliating”, was the trigger that led President Petro to refuse to receive them since he ordered that the presidential plane be sent to the United States for his release. That said, now it is only enough that the procedures are fulfilled so that everything returns to normal, although several negative marches for Colombia will remain.
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Lessons learned
Portfolio spoke with several analysts and experts in economic and international policy issues, who stressed that we must closely follow aspects such as investor trust, fiscal uncertainty, the state of the debt and The country’s risk vision, which could suffer setbacks in the short term.
For the financial analyst, Andrés Moreno Jaramillo, Colombia was the “scapegoat” so that President Donald Trump could show the power and strength of his anti -immigrants polycia in the United States and that despite the fact that President Petro protested by what they were Making, its power was not enough to generate changes.
Donald Trump, president of the United States
Bloomberg
“Leave Colombia very badly parked, it was a paw I wish it does not have major consequences. There will be fear, while Petro is, to invest in Colombia and do operations. At any time, Petro, three in the morning, has a coffee and will annoy the United States, generating these instabilities, ”said Moreno Jaramillo.
Another of the fronts that will be marked is tourism, since for this expert, “Petro is sowing hatred and division is complex, the United States is our main commercial partner and then clearly if countries do not have a friendly policy in what It can be, it will be complex ”, while describing as” daring “, the protest of the national president through his social networks.
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Economic wounds
Meanwhile, for the rector of the EIA University and former Minister of Finance, José Manuel Restrepo, this crisis put the country under greater scrutiny, with long -term implications for the bilateral relationship, which will only feed uncertainty affects nearshoring and relocation of companies to export to the United States.
“The most dangerous consequence is to have put ourselves on the radar of the United States, at the beginning of the Trump government, with all the implications that a government of this nature has and without even having begun to discuss the other background problem that is the production of Coca in our country, ”he explained.
For Restrepo Abondano, the above will derive “in another series of difficulties in the face of this relationship and the sanction is already in force. Because while we get up, let’s say the problem partially, The sanctions are there to be signed, but they were already announced. ”
Similarly, César Pabón, Director of Economic Research at Corficolombiana, who focused his perceptions on the implications that everything happened will have about the price of the dollar and the investor trust.
Imports
Istock
“Almost half of foreign direct investment and remittances that arrive Colombia comes from this nation. Therefore, losing the confidence of this historical strategic partner has significant implications in both economic and social terms for the country, and the possible decrease in investments from the United States will directly impact the Colombian economy, ”he said.
While recognizing that there are those who argue that other investments could fill this void, Pabón made it clear that “the uncertainty generated by this break will have substantial effects in the medium and long term. The decisions of US investors and their partners tend to be strategic and long term, which makes it difficult to reversed. ”
Not everything is bad
Despite all of the above, for Henry Amorocho, professor at the University of Rosario, Colombia is in a favorable situation thanks to the positive behavior of three key variables: inflation, the exchange rate and interest rates, which in their concept have generated a “price triptych” that increases the attractiveness for internal investment as external.
“Having a lower exchange rate, lower inflation, and of course, seeing that these two prices are falling, unquestionably the reaction is that the interest rate must also decrease and in my feeling we will reach 650 basic points at the end of December. So this price triptych will ensure that things improve, ”he said.
However, he suggests that there is Mable in the future, since “the good thing that had been doing in the field of economic policy could have taken another land” and highlights the importance of having good teams in the diplomatic partthat for him “was up to it” and allowed the impasse soon to be overcome.
