The 13% adjustment will raise the monthly salary to 9,582.47 pesos, while in the Northern Border Free Zone the increase will be 5%, to reach 13,409.80 pesos per month.
The Secretary of Labor and Social Welfare, Marath Baruch Bolaños, stressed that, since 2018, the purchasing power of the minimum wage has increased 154%, that 6.6 million people have escaped poverty in this way and that those who earn less have seen accumulated increases of up to 115% in the rest of the country and 204% on the northern border.
For Janneth Quiroz, director of Economic Analysis at Monex, the 13% increase in the minimum wage has positive effects, since it strengthens purchasing power, contributes to reducing working poverty and sends a favorable signal towards the review of the T-MEC by showing that Mexico continues to raise wage levels and avoid unfair competition practices. In addition, he said, the advance of the SMG can support the appreciation of the peso if Banxico maintains a less expansive monetary policy.
As there is no proportional increase in productivity with respect to wages, and in an environment of low economic growth, companies face greater budgetary challenges
Janneth Quiroz, director of economic analysis at Monex
However, the new increase comes in the midst of a labor market that is losing traction and where informality is gaining ground. As published ExpansionOn November 28, all the growth of the Employment in 2025 comes from the informal sector while formal employment has experienced four consecutive months of annual declines, something that is historically associated with recessionary episodes in Mexico. That is, without the boost of informality, the country would have registered a net drop in employment.
Added to this is the slowdown in consumption, non-automotive exports and services, elements that mean that the salary adjustment is implemented in a more fragile environment than in previous years.
Mexico is already in the caution zone, says the OECD
In this scenario, the OECD considers that, once the minimum wage-median wage ratio exceeds 60%, it is advisable to act prudently to avoid distortions.
“It is essential to evaluate the evolution of productivity and analyze how additional increases could affect access to formal employment,” González Pandiella said by email.
The expert recalled that an accelerated increase in labor costs can especially affect young people, microbusinesses and sectors intensive in unskilled labor. In addition, it observes that economic growth has slowed and that formal job creation has weakened. This could suggest that the marginal impact of new increases will be different from that of previous years.
Pressure on the business sector and inflation
Janneth Quiroz warned that the increase also increases the risks of inflationary persistence, since the underlying inflation has been above 4% for six months, and represents additional pressures for companies in a context of economic slowdown and lower consumption.
Regarding the threshold of 60% of the median salary set by the OECD, he pointed out that, although it reflects progress in salary equity, it also exposes growing tensions. Since wages advance faster than productivity and this, in an environment of weak growth, can generate a “vicious circle” that limits economic expansion in the medium term.
The business sector, Monex warns, could suffer the increase more given weak retail sales and the slowdown in consumption. The main beneficiaries, in contrast, will be those who earn one or two minimums or whose salaries are adjusted by direct reference to the minimum. The bank remembers that 39.5% of the employed population earns up to the minimum wage, so the impact of this adjustment extends to a large part of the labor market.
An act of social justice and compliance with the T-MEC
Despite the technical alerts, the government emphasized the advances in well-being and social justice, since the minimum wage will be enough to buy up to 2 basic baskets with the increase in January 2026, approaching the government goal of reaching 2.5 baskets by 2030.
In addition, the Secretary of Labor emphasized the improvements in the purchasing power of the salary with respect to the price of tortillas, eggs and beans, as well as historical increases compared to the closures of the six-year term from Calderón to AMLO.
The increase also plays a strategic role in the renegotiation of the T-MEC. According to Monex, the advancement of the minimum wage seeks to demonstrate that Mexico continues to raise its wage levels and avoid unfair competition practices, a particularly sensitive issue for trading partners.
The business sector supports, but asks for an annual review
The Employers’ Confederation of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex) supported the increase in the minimum wage by emphasizing that the new salary level covers 100% of the family welfare line, equivalent to two basic baskets.
The organization stressed that this progress is consistent with the path of recovery of purchasing power promoted in recent years, although it warned that it will be necessary to monitor each annual adjustment to avoid pressures on inflation, employment and productivity.
“Consensus can strengthen income without compromising the stability of formal employment,” said the Confederation.
Coparmex also celebrated the differentiated increase in the minimum wage in the Northern Border Free Zone through an inflationary adjustment of only 5% (it went from 419.88 to 440.87 pesos per day). Well, he pointed out that this measure avoids distortions in the labor market.
“In that region, the minimum wage already exceeded President Claudia Sheinbaum’s goal of reaching 2.5 times the value of the food and non-food basket; with the new adjustment, said reference is exceeded by around 12%, which reflects a coordinated effort to strengthen income,” explained the business organization.
