The discussion of the minimum wage It is one of the most important points in the economic agenda of the last section of each year and the one expected for the increase of 2026 already heats engines. From the national government some letters have already been uncovered: at the beginning of September, President Gustavo Petro already notified that “We will fire last year with a good minimum elevation decree“. Now, the Bogotá Bank presented a report in which it predicts that This salary reaches the figure of $ 1’600,000 for the other year.
(See: Would inflation in Colombia go down or rise in the short term? This is what experts say).
The minimum wage of the following year is defined every end of the year.
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Projections on the increase in the minimum wage
A report from the area of Economic Research (IE) of Banco de Bogotá He states that, and taking into account that 2025 inflation would close about 5% (5.2% per year in 2024), LBased on adjusting the figure it would be the rise that was made for this year, that is, 9.5%. Thus, the minimum would go from $ 1,423,500 to $ 1,558,773 in 2026.
The bank also recalled that The last four governments that the country has had made in its last year of mandate a real increase in minimum (discounting inflation) greater compared to the other three, hence “There is a high probability of a minimum overflowing pointing to $ 1,600,000 in 2026, consisting of an adjustment of 12.4%”
If the increase becomes the one projected by the entity and inflation of 2025 is confirmed by 5%, The real increase of the minimum would be greater than 7%, A maximum of 40 years.
“While an increase in this magnitude could benefit the purchasing power of households in the short term, gain would be diluted in the medium and long term due to greater inflation. Moreover, the increase in minimum can be even greater for political motivations, via the adjustment of the transport subsidy, as happened in 2024“The bank added.
(See: Minimum wage 2026: This is what the Government has said about the next increase).
By 2025, at $ 1’423,500 of the minimum, $ 200,000 of transport were added, so The final value was $ 1,623,500.
In terms of prices, added the bank, “The convergence of inflation to the target range of the Bank of the Republic, between 2% and 4% in 2025, has been largely limited by the dynamics of the service basket by excluding the lease component”
And explained that The increase in labor costs derived from: high adjustments of the minimum, the reduction of the working day and the entry into force of the labor reform, has had effects, “Facts that have led to inflation of intensive services in labor (food services outside the home, hairdressing, nursery, recreation, culture, domestic, co -ownership administration, among others) to slow down their bearish trend in 2025”
In conclusion, The greatest labor costs would be pressing up the inflation of services.
(See: Petro anticipates what would be the increase in the minimum wage by 2026).
Minimum wage in Colombia in 2025 is at $ 1,623,500, counting transportation subsidy.
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What has the government of the minimum rise said
The Bogotá Bank insisted that the government’s position is clear: the minimum adjustment by 2026 will be high again. Germán Ávila, the Minister of Finance, has already said that President Petro will take advantage of his last year to make the rise “important”, since he considers that his policy of increases “has generated benefits for the national economy“
The Minister of Labor, Antonio Sanguino, He also referred to the issue a few days ago and commented that the president has the legal power to decree the increase, if there is no agreement: “If I correspond to use its legal power, it will. That is why we convene the Labor Concertation Commission, with the consent of the President, to begin the discussion with figures and experts that define the economic scenario and the increase that allows improving the income of the workers’ income“
In addition, he stressed that “This government has promoted salary increases above inflation, which has improved purchasing capacity, decreased unemployment (8.8% according to the DANE, the lowest since before the pandemic) and maintained controlled inflation, around 5%”
Last September 11, Portfolio learned that President Petro would have already given the order to the montrabjo to sit his position in 11%, very close to what was projected by the bank of Bogotá and A level that analysts and unions have warned that they could play against the generation of formal employment and economic growth.
This has been based, for example, on a study delivered by the Bank of the Republic in which it said that High adjustments of the minimum have influenced the increase in informality.
The minimum wage in Colombia rose 9.5% by 2025.
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The impacts of a high increase in inflation
The bank warned that the behavior of Inflation in 2026 will depend largely on government decisions and that the increase in minimum will have an important weight.
If the rise is 9.5%, inflation next year would be 4.1%. If the increase is 12.4%, inflation would be 4.7%. In both cases it would be above the issuer’s goal.
He also warned that if the minimum wage is raised 12.4% and the third tax reform of the Petro government is approved, Inflation in 2026 would be above 5%, completing six years in front of that barrier.
(See: Minhacienda anticipates a good rise in the minimum wage by 2026).
“Therefore, the inflation path and therefore of the interest rate of the BR is, mostly, subject to the decisions of the government in its last year of mandate“The bank said.
Insisted that, according to their projections, Food items (3.1%), goods (3%) and regulated (3.5%) would enter the target range of inflation in 2026 and they would benefit from possible casualties. The service item, meanwhile, would depend on the minimum wage.
Finally, he projected that the Colombian peso would continue to be appreciated against the dollar if the American Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains the rate cut and the country risk premium is lower “for an electoral result that derives in a government with responsible fiscal and institutional practices“
Camilo Hernández M.
Portfolio Digital Editor
