When considering the main large sectors of activity of the IGAE, “a monthly decrease of 0.3% is calculated for Secondary Activities and 0.5% for tertiary activities”, specified the Inegi.
This stagnation and fall estimated by the Inegi come after, in April, Mexico’s economic activity grew 1.1% at a monthly rate, its best advance since March 2021. In its annual comparison, it is estimated that the IGAE grew 2.1% in June, with an annual advance of 3.5% in secondary activities and 0.9% in tertiary activities.
The monthly contraction of 0.4% for June would be the first since October 2021. And, with these data, it is estimated that the growth of Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of the year will be only 1%, “driven mainly due to the growth in April, since in the first quarter the monthly growth of the IGAE was relatively low: 0.44% in January, 0% in February and 0.39% in March,” said Gabriela Siller, director of Economic-Financial Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE.
The expert emphasized that the deterioration of the economy observed as of May, with a clear downward trend, “raises the probability of a quarterly contraction of GDP during the third quarter of the year, which would slow down Mexico’s economic recovery.”
