And with this growth, especially in the granting of credit, the risks also increased, which is why the Sofipos registered a delinquency rate of 9.9% until September, a figure that is almost triple what the banks register, 2.27%.
In the study “Determinants of delinquency in the consumer portfolio for Sofipos”, carried out by the central bank, it is highlighted that economic growth is negatively associated with delinquency since, when the economy grows, employment increases and consumers have greater payment capacity and sufficient income to pay their debts more easily.
Thus, 2025 was a complex year for the Mexican economy: although forecasts pointing to a contraction were not met, the country is aiming for growth of just 0.4%, according to central bank estimates.
Regarding inflation, Banxico points out, its effect depends on whether the decrease in consumers’ payment capacity or the decrease in the real interest rate predominates, so the relationship can be positive or negative, depending on which of the effects is more prevalent.
Inflation in 2025, although it was within the central bank’s variability range, registered a rebound in November of this year.
“The results show that an increase of 1 percentage point in annual inflation or in the real interest rate would lead to an increase of almost 2 percentage points in the Sofipos consumer delinquency rate,” Banxico points out in its report.
The report adds that although the Sofipos sector is small in relation to the assets of the financial system and its interconnection with the rest of the intermediaries is low, its recent rapid growth and the differentiated dynamics of its delinquency with other players should be a reason for the authorities’ interest.
The Sofipos have more than 12 million borrowers in the country and although they represent a small proportion of the assets of the Mexican financial system and are not considered institutions of systemic importance due to their low level of interconnection with other intermediaries, the study of their risk indicators is of high importance to monitor the health of the Mexican financial system.
“As the size of the Sofipos sector increases, the monitoring of its delinquencies will be more relevant to guarantee the prudent development of this sector,” Banxico highlighted.
Until the closing of the edition, the Mexican Association of Sofipos (AMS) did not offer a position on the issue requested by Expansión.
