On October 27, Uruguay held the first round of the presidential elections, sending clear signals about the state of the electorate. The host of the program “La Cosa Vostra”, Federico Fasano Mertens, compared in previous chapters the historical political projects in areas such as ethics, social, economic and public security. In this new chapter, the journalist invites reflection by analyzing the recent electoral results and gives clues about who is best positioned to assume the leadership of the country.
Strengths of the Republican Coalition
One of the great strengths of the Republican coalition candidate, Alvaro Delgado, according to Fasano Mertens, is a clear advantage of 90,000 more votes than all the partner parties in the coalition, compared to the vote that the Frente Amplio obtained in the first round. , despite being the party with the most votes in the entire country. This is a key indicator that demonstrates a shift in public opinion and a capacity for convincing that can impact the next electoral round.
The second strength lies in the experience of the past runoff, where the Republican coalition suffered a considerable loss of votes that is not expected to be repeated. The promises of effective change and restored trust suggest that the bases that support the Delgado-Ripoll formula will not abandon their voters, a crucial aspect to maintain electoral momentum.
Finally, the strength of the coalition also lies in its ability to reconstitute itself after what Fasano Mertens describes as a major electoral defeat. The coalition has quickly repositioned itself, with a renewed focus that suggests that, despite being stripped of certain support, it can reassert itself in the electorate and consolidate its base.
Weaknesses of the Republican Coalition
Despite its ability to reconstitute itself, the Republican coalition faces serious weaknesses. The loss of 153,000 votes and the reduction of its representation in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies is significant. The current fragmentation of the legislative power creates a chaotic environment, where the approval of measures becomes a challenge, generating the impression of inefficiency and lack of governability, according to Fasano Mertens.
Another notable weakness is the tendency toward voter flight that has characterized past elections. The former director of La República presents compelling data that shows that historically, in each runoff, the Republican Coalition has seen a decline in its support base, a pattern that can threaten its future.
Finally, the coalition lacks tangible results to present to an increasingly critical electorate. In key fields such as the economy and security, the perception of failure and corruption scandals related to the incumbent government have eroded popular trust.
Strengths of the Broad Front
Based on the results of the first round, the Frente Amplio emerged with a victory of 125,000 more votes compared to its previous performance, marking a clear trend towards recovery. Winning is a reflection of active militancy and a revaluation of their proposal to the citizens.
Fasano Mertens is struck by the fact that the Frente Amplio, in each previous runoff, has never experienced decreases in its percentage of votes, which could indicate a pattern of stability and growth. Such resilience in adverse contexts suggests that, under the guidance of the Orsi-Cosse formula, the FA could build on that positive track record.
In the field of governability, the Frente Amplio has a clear advantage by having a majority in the Senate, as well as a privileged situation in the Chamber of Deputies. This allows him to manage legislation more efficiently and effectively, an ideal element to attract voters who seek stability in public management.
Weaknesses of the Broad Front
Despite its growth, the Frente Amplio faces a debt with 90,000 voters that it needs to recover from the electorate, which expressed its discontent in past elections. This figure translates into the challenge of reengaging those voters who walked away due to government decisions or negative perceptions about their management. Convincing this group will be crucial to advance towards the runoff.
Despite the strengths, the Frente Amplio is not without risks. Recent history shows that disenchantment can also affect its foundation; Although the disenchanted population has begun to return, there is a possibility that some voters will move towards alternative options. To mitigate this risk, the Frente Amplio must focus on demonstrating the tangible benefits of its past management and how these can strengthen the future.
Another weak point for the Frente Amplio is the need to refine its message. In a polarized political environment, according to the host of La Cosa Vostra, they must clearly articulate their vision for the country to differentiate themselves not only from the Republican coalition, but also from other parties that can attract certain segments of the population. The lack of a strong and attractive message could compromise your ability to attract new voters or win back undecided voters.
The votes that the Frente Amplio can capture
In his analysis, the host of La Cosa Vostra mentions the importance of focus on the 150,000 citizens who voted in favor of the Social Reform plebiscite, but did not opt for the Frente Amplio. This group represents a fertile area that needs to be addressed by the campaign. The proposal to repeal a law considered unfair can resonate deeply in this sector, therefore, it becomes crucial that the Frente Amplio promote this message and show itself as the only party willing to make significant changes in retirement policies.
The key to the success of the Frente Amplio also lies in reactivating the approximately 60,000 disenchanted people who did not return for this election. Through motivational campaigns and direct contact with these voters, the Uruguayan Left’s formula can promote a message of renewal, ensuring that they not only govern again, but are also in a position to fulfill their promises.
In addition, the Frente Amplio has opportunities in other political sectors. Capturing the votes of parties such as Sovereign Identity or the Popular Assembly can be vital. Voters of these parties, particularly those who identify with left-wing or environmentalist policies, are potentially susceptible to the Frente Amplio’s message and success story.
At the end of the program, Fasano Mertens warned that although the statistics indicate a victory for the Frente Amplio in the runoff, they are not the key, because the human soul is fickle, and explained that what must be understood is the heart of the differences between both government projects: Economic growth with simultaneous redistribution of wealth (FA) vs economic development without simultaneous redistribution (CR).
