Covering shortfalls with income from financing is not a new practice, due to an accumulated debt of 18.26 billion pesos, this year the Treasury will allocate 1.29 billion pesos for the payment of interest; That is, 12.7% of the Budget, a percentage higher than that expected for the end of 2025, which is 12.3%, according to figures from the SHCP.
This means that 3,847 million pesos will be allocated daily, while in 2019 2,062 million were paid. “In just seven years, the cost of interest has almost doubled, increasing 86.5%, (that is, an additional 1,784 million per day, already considering inflation),” highlighted the México Evalúa analysis.
Payment of electricity
The bills for the services are also covered. This 2026, to keep electricity rates below their real cost, the federal government must transfer resources to the CFE every day.
On average, every 24 hours it allocates around 240 million to subsidize household electricity bills, the think tank estimated.
The pressure for this support increases in view of the rise in one of the raw materials to generate electricity: natural gas, which is rising in price in the United States, due to the increase in demand from Europe, and is an important supply for Mexico.
“Electricity generation in Mexico is very oriented towards natural gas, 60% of the electricity we consume is based on combined cycle plants that use natural gas. The pressure is going to be on public finances, because the federal government is going to try, as has always happened, to soften the impact that the price of natural gas has on the cost of electricity with subsidies,” detailed Luis Miguel Labardini, partner at the firm Marcos y Asociados.
Children and pensions
The slope intensifies and extends throughout 2026 with the commitment of transfers to states and municipalities through Participations and Contributions, in addition to payments of lifetime and non-life pensions. Together these expenses account for 42% of public spending.
“In recent years, this expense has grown even faster than debt interest payments. In 2019, the State allocated just over 3,000 million pesos daily to cover the cost of pensions. But by 2026 that figure will rise to 5,422 million per day, an increase of 81%, equivalent to an additional 2,419 million per day, already adjusted for inflation. The result is a commitment that continues to grow and that puts increasing pressure on the Government’s fiscal space,” detailed the México Evalúa analysis.
