Iván Arias, director of Economic Studies of Banamex, said in an interview that the heaviest tax burden that the Government will have is between 2030 and 2035 before the retirees by Law 73.
“The bulk of the commitments in payment of pensions and retirement by the public sector is concentrated in what we are going to see in the next 10 years for the previous pension scheme,” he said.
Analysts have warned that the pension system is a “time bomb” for the Government, so a tax reform that helps increase collection should be sought.
Public expenditure on pensions will represent in 2026 46.10% of the tax revenues of the Government of Mexico, said Gabriela Siller, director of Economic-Financial Analysis of Banco Base.
In the medium term, the solution will have to go through a tax reform
Iván Arias, director of Economic Studies of Banamex.
And it is that with data from the Insurance, Pensions and Social Security unit of the Ministry of Finance, currently a pensioner under Law 73 receives a pension for about 23 years on average due to greater life expectancy.
In the economic package, the Treasury warns that one of the main fiscal risk factors is the aging of Mexicans.
“The transition of a predominantly young population pyramid towards a more aging structure implies a lower number of active workers for each person of retirement age,” says the document presented on September 8.
Although Mexico still has a young population base, the projections indicate that this condition will be gradually modified: while this 2025 the population of Mexico over 60 years will be approximately 17.1 million people, equivalent to 12.8% of the total population, by 2050 it is estimated that it will reach 35.4 million people, which will be equivalent to 24.1% of the total population.
While protecting older adults is a legitimate social priority, doing so at the cost of sacrificing investment in those who will support the economy in the coming years compromises long -term growth and well -being
Mexico Association, how are we going?
The Government of Claudia Sheinbaum estimates that through the incorporation of a new player in the life income, the evolution of the reforms to the savings systems for the withdrawal of 2020 and modifications to the Social Security Law, the tax burden can be reduced.
The Government projects the distribution of 14.2 million pensions for well -being “with the aim of continuing to improve the living conditions of this sector of the population” before the narrative that these support are helping people get out of poverty.
In 2024, poverty in Mexico fell to its lowest level in eight years due to the increase to the minimum wage and the dispersion of social programs. Inegi figures, published last month, highlight that although Mexico managed to reduce poverty and extreme poverty, almost 42 million people remain vulnerable.
