The global economy 3% will grow this year instead of 2.8% predicted in April, good news in the middle of a tariff maelstrom, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the update of your forecasts published on Tuesday.
“Uncertainty has remained high” despite the pause in the highest tariffs planned by the United States for its commercial partners which will expire on August 1affirms the IMF.
Since April Washington has reached Agreements with the United Kingdom, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and the European Union. But many of its commercial partners hurry the last days until Friday to avoid increases in customs rates that in Brazil are 50% and in Mexico, 30 percent.
According to the latest IMF update, the world economy will grow 3% (+0.2 percentage points compared to the forecasts of April), that is, less than in 2024 (3.3%).
“The tariff impact is not as serious as we projected in early April,” the Chief Economist of the Fund, Pierre-Loivier Gourinchas told AFP.
To these “good news” the expert adds that “inflation is more or less as planned”, with a world average of 4.2% for this year and 3.6% by 2026.
Several reasons explain economic resistance.
Apart from the tariff pauses and a handful of trade agreements with Washington, Gourinchas highlights the depreciation of the dollar and a “small fiscal stimulus” in some countries like the United States.
Double edge
But also the fact that companies accumulate reserves in anticipating a rise in taxes. And this is a double -edged sword.
“If the shelves are supplied now, it will not be necessary to provide them with them later,” so that “we foresee a reduction in commercial activity in the second semester and in 2026,” Gourinchas explained.
The differences between countries are notorious.
The United States will grow 1.9% (+0.1 percentage points), that is, much less than in 2024 (+2.8%), because inflation begins to “give signs that it takes into account tariffs,” Gourinchas estimated.
The IMF anticipates that the Eurozone progresses this year 1% (+0.2), although it will not be thanks to its main economies.
The forecasts for France (+0.6%) and Spain (+2.5%) are maintained and that of Germany rises only 0.1 percentage points, the right thing for the European locomotive to avoid a recession (+0.1%).
On the contrary, the prognosis for China improves considerably up to 4.8% (+0.8 pp), which approaches the percentage of 2024 (5%).
It is due to several factors such as the accumulation of Chinese products, especially in the United States, according to Gourinchas. However, the Asian country fights with an ancient internal demand, a weak consumer confidence and a real estate sector in crisis.
Latin America
In Latin America and the Caribbean, economic growth of 2.2% in 2025 is expected, that is, 0.2 percentage points more than anticipated in April. It is less than 2.4% of the previous year, but the financial organization expects this percentage to be recovered in 2026.
The FMI anticipated improvements in the economy of Brazil, which will expand 2.3% (+0.3 pp) despite the fact that the largest Latin American economy is part of the countries that “will have large fiscal deficits in a context of historically high levels of public debt.”
The organization is quite optimistic for Mexico. In April, it considered that its economy would be 0.3% this year injured by the impact of US tariffs but now provides for a growth of 0.2% (+0.5 percentage points).
Argentina, the third largest economy in the region, remains unchanged: +5.5% this year and 4.5% in 2026.
The IMF update, which does not detail the forecasts for the rest of the Latin American countries, warns anyway that “geopolitical tensions could interrupt global supply chains and increase raw material prices.”
