The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its growth forecast for the Latin American economy stable at 2.5% for 2025, in its quarterly report World Economic Outlookpublished this Friday.
Among the largest countries in the region, the IMF maintains the 2.2% growth forecast for Brazil, raises that of Mexico by one tenth (1.4%) and expects a strong rebound in the Argentine economy (5.0%) after the 2024 recession.
The slowdown ofBrazil’s economy will come after having recorded robust growth of 3.7% in 2024, according to new calculations from the IMFwhich revised seven tenths upwards the forecast released last October.
This strong growth last year of the South American giant, supported by domestic consumption, had an impact on inflation, which closed 2024 at 4.83%, slightly above the ceiling of the goal set by the Central Bank.
Inflation and advanced economies
The managing director of IMFKristalina Georgieva, in statements to journalists, stated that inflation is moderating faster in advanced economies than in emerging ones, and noted that Brazil “faced somewhat higher inflation.”
Sources of IMF recognized that the Fund’s main concern regarding the latin american economy It is precisely the inflationary pressure in Brazil, something that led the Central Bank to raise interest rates to 12.25% to try to contain prices.
The report of IMF raised the growth forecasts by one tenth Mexico’s economy for 2025, up to 1.4%, and left unchanged at 2% for 2026.
In November, the agency renewed Mexico’s access to the Flexible Credit Line (LCF) of about 35,000 million dollars given the solidity of its macroeconomic policies and its institutional frameworks for public policies.
However, he indicated that in Mexico “economic activity is moderating, with a slowdown in private consumption and investment, and a decline in employment growth.
“Growth is expected to moderate further in 2025, reflecting the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and a slowdown in the US economy,” it added. the IMF.
- In relation to Argentina, the report foresees a challenging outlook in the short term, but with signs of recovery later.
According to the new projections, it is estimated that the Gross domestic product Argentina’s real (GDP) will fall 2.8% in 2024, reflecting the persistent contraction of economic activity amid a complex macroeconomic context.
However, starting in 2025, the IMF It foresees a significant rebound, with growth of 5.0% that would also be maintained in 2026, which represents an upward revision of three tenths for next year. EFE
