The economy Global will demonstrate its resilience Throughout 2025 and will continue to grow at a sustained and slow pace, despite the entry into force of new duty in the war commercial Unleashed by the United States, in the opinion of the Oxford Economics Analysis Center.
In the presentation this Wednesday of your Perspectives Annual, the institution’s experts approached the possible scenarios of the war commercialhow will it affect growth and what will be the most harmed sectors.
For Innes McFEE, chief economist of the firm, “statistics are still ‘boring’ despite all the convulsive news” and point to a “growth constant but slow global. “
The reason for that resilience is, in his opinion, in the great changes that are experiencing monetary and fiscal policies, which have become “much more dynamic and active.”
In statements to EFE, the company’s CEO, Adrian Cooper, agreed that, while the level of the protectionism be “content”, you can expect the economy World is still resilient.
However, he warned that, by putting them in the historical context and comparing them with the previous two or three decades, the current rates of growth generate Challenges important social and political.
“That disenchantment with the rhythm in which the standard of living progress is the root of the increase in populism we are seeing, and in perspective, it is very difficult not to see how these populist trends grow and expand,” Cooper said.
USA retains its “exceptionalism”
The Perspectives Oxford Economics economics were divided into three large blocks of the economy Global, United States, Europe and China, which have very different trajectories, with the Asian giant in a sustained decline.
USA will keep your call “Exceptionalism“That places him very close to the rest, largely thanks to his productivity, driven by the strong investment in new Technologiesand the robust consumption of households.
According to McFee, the duty They cannot be studied as something isolated, despite their harmful effects, and could be compensated with measures Prosecutors according to Trump’s mandate.
However, the spent familiar It falls more and more in wealthy homes, while the most disadvantaged layers are lagging behind and unemployed have more difficulties in finding work.
Cooper caught attention to the “inherent contradiction between the policy Migratory and the policy Manufacturer “that Trump develops, since, while trying to boost the national industry, deportes the immigrant labor necessary to carry it out.
That can also do USAA less attractive place to invest, by increasing labor costs.
Stagnant Europe
In Europe he consumption It will pull the car of a slow macroeconomic recovery, closely linked to the structure of each country: manufacturing people like Germany stagnate, while those dependent on tourism and services, such as Spain or Portugal, grow.
The ‘Think Tank’ foresees a growth For the EUROZONA 1.1 %, which would go down to 0.9 % if Trump decides to go ahead with his threat of imposing duty To the EU to compensate for the deficit commercial of your country.
“He impact of the duty It is important but not enormous, has been over -dimensioned, “Oxford Economics chief analyst judged, although everything could change if the United States decides to go further and imposes 60 % rates to China and 10 % to the rest of the world.
And apart from dutywhat can be assumed is that “around benign of inflation“That has characterized the economy Global in the last 20 years has already disappeared.
“We must expect one inflation Much more volatile. Therefore, the Banks central will be much more cautious From now on with the declines of interest rates, and those cuts They will have so much influence on the evolution of prices, “McFe predicted.
