Meat will continue to be present in the global diet, but with great differences between regions and types. According to the report Agricultural Outlook 2025–2035 of the OECD and FAOglobal consumption will increase around 13% in the next ten years, led by chicken meat.
Chicken will be the big winner: its consumption will grow more than 20% and will reach 173 million tons, thanks to its affordable price, lower environmental impact and high protein content. Instead, beef and pork will stagnate or even decline in some countries, especially in Europe and North America, where consumers are looking for more sustainable and healthy options.
At an individual level, average consumption per person will only rise slightly, to about 29 kilos of meat per yeara figure that shows more moderate demand than in the past.
More production, but with less environmental impact
Global meat production will become increasingly efficient. It is expected that grow 13% by 2035driven by Asia and Latin America, which will contribute most of the increase. The technological advancesgenetic improvement and more controlled feeding will allow animals to reach a higher weight at slaughter, which will translate into more meat with fewer resources.
Beef
Thanks to these improvements, the sector’s greenhouse gas emissions only would increase 6%, despite the fact that total production will grow more than double that rate. This means that producing meat will be less polluting per unit, although environmental pressure will remain a central challenge for the industry.
China buys less and changes world trade
For years, China was the main driver of global meat trade, but that trend is beginning to change. He country will reduce its dependence on importsgoing from representing a fifth of the world total to only a sixth by 2035.
This will modify international flows: global meat trade will grow barely 10% in the next decade, a figure much lower than the previous expansion rate. In 2024, a slight rebound of 2% in exports was already observed, driven by countries such as Brazil, Australia and the United States, which benefit from abundant production and competitive costs.
Prices will rise, but then stabilize
In the short term, meat prices will remain high, especially beef and lamb, because many countries They are rebuilding their livestock complexes. But towards the middle of the next decade, a gradual decline is expected: chicken and pork could become cheaper by up to 20%, and beef and sheep by around 8%, already adjusted for inflation.
chicken meat
This will occur because the costs of animal feed will drop and productivity will be higher, which It will allow more meat to be offered without raising final prices. In simple terms: meat will remain expensive in the short term, but not to the point of becoming unaffordable.
The new risks of the sector
The report warns that the industry will face significant challenges: health outbreaks such as bird flu or African swine fevernew environmental regulations and restrictions on the use of antibiotics. Furthermore, changes in consumer habits, especially in higher-income countries, could reduce demand for red meat and increase pressure on producers to offer more sustainable food.
Even with these risks, the trend is clear: the future of meat will be more efficient, more technological and with chicken as the protagonist of the world’s menus.
