Although credit in the last 18 months has been plagued by lower growth and also by a higher number of defaults (deterioration), due to high interest rates, inflation and the economic slowdown may have begun to improve in June, according to analysts.
According to the Financial Superintendency, the gross balance of the portfolio amounted to $693.5 billion at the end of the first half of the year, thus completing 15 months with negative annual real variations and registering -5.1% in the gross balance in June, which reflected the negative annual real variation of the consumption and commercial modalities. which could not be neutralized by the positive variation in microcredit and housing.
The balance that reports arrears of more than 30 days reached $35.4 billion, which meant a decrease month-on-month balance of $199.2 billion.
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In particular, the entity says that compared to June 2023, the balance increased at a real annual rate of 2.6%, driven by microcredit default, which registered 46.1%, decreasing compared to the previous month; housing, which registered eleven months of growth up to 23.8% in June; commercial activity, which decreased compared to the previous month by 2.8%; and consumption, which fell for the second consecutive month by -4.7% in real terms annually.
The current portfolio recorded $658.1 billion, 94.9% of the total balanceThus, the portfolio quality indicator for default for the entire portfolio, calculated as the ratio between the overdue and gross balance, was 5.11%.
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In January, the figure was 5.15%, in February, 5.11%, in March, 5.17%, in April, 5.25%, and in May, 5.18%. By modality, microcredit reported an indicator of 9.6%. It should be noted that for comparative purposes, it should be noted that in most countries in the region, the overdue portfolio is measured based on maturities greater than 90 days, but in Colombia it is from 30 days.
According to Edgar Jiménez, a Finance professor at the Financial Laboratory of the Jorge Tadeo Lozano University, the main culprit for the sustained increase in the overdue portfolio is the consumer modality, since debtors are faced with a decrease in income or due to work issues. Those who stop paying first are the mortgage portfolio that performs best because it is the most important asset for families.
The professor says that the figures are not all bad, since up to 6% of portfolio quality is tolerable.
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“The current level of 5.11% is a yellow light that generates a certain alarm, but indicators of financial crises such as the one in 1999 in Colombia showed levels of 16 to 18%.”
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David Pérez, professor of Finance at the University of Los Andes, says that “The deterioration in the portfolio quality index is expected for an economy that is cooling down. These levels are not very high and should not be so serious for banks, given the provisions they must have.”
He says it is important to see if the increase that It occurred between 2023 and 2024 due to an increase in the overdue portfolio or a drop in the total portfolio.
A motivation can be the work issue
Andrés Giraldo, professor of Economics at the Universidad Javeriana, says that the deterioration in portfolio quality may be giving indications that the increase in consumption is supported by an increase in debt and is reflected in the deterioration of the labor market, and at the end of the day, it is possible that households are taking on debt to finance their consumption, and without income, the non-performing portfolio increases.
Arnoldo Casas, Investment Director of Credicorp Capital says that a healthy portfolio has a quality index of over 3% and “The indicator reflects the slowdown in the economy and the impact of the increase in rates is a natural issue and in a certain way supports the need to continue with the downward adjustments in interest rates.”
HOLMAN RODRIGUEZ MARTINEZ
Portfolio
