So far no one dares to raise his head and publicly say that he is going to be a candidate for the Presidency. The management of the government and the time remaining until 2024 are the arguments that the political leaders use in public to go off on a tangent when they are consulted by journalists. But low, and not so much, the different sectors begin to move the chips and make decisions with a view to 2024.
Aire Fresco, majority sector of the National Party and birthplace of President Luis Lacalle Pou, has this Sunday an important date in its career towards 2024 with its congress in Trinidad, which reactivated the sectoral activity that had been put to sleep by the pandemic and government management. And while they start talking about candidacies, The sector has another “crossroads” to solve thinking about the electoral year: the assembly of the Senate list.
The candidacy of Alvaro Delgado it is the one that is most consolidated, both internally and in public opinion, but in the Lacalista sector nobody dares to rule out the Minister of Social Development, Martin Lema. Although the hierarch has not sent concrete signals that he will run the race in 2024, he does not close any doors either.
Lema is focused on managing a very demanding ministry and accurately measures his interventions and public discussions. Next to that opposition deputy who criticized the government and constantly clashed with the ruling party, the now Minister of Social Development cultivates a low media profile almost unknown for what his political activity has been.
However, and beyond the fact that no one is going to make a decision in the short term, the different members of both currents they began to talk in “very good terms” how to face the integration of the list(s) to the Senateaccording to industry sources told The Observer. And there two scenarios open up and both have a certain complexity.
One possibility is agree on a list to the Senate and try to accommodate all the names that the sector has. In this scenario there are two elements that are on the table: the quota (one of every three names has to be that of a woman) and the mayors who do not have the possibility of re-election because they are already in a second consecutive term, like Carmelo Vidalín . In this scenario, it becomes almost impossible to establish an order, with their respective substitutions, that leaves everyone happy.
It is that in the president’s list there are many names who want to appear in the first places, and who understand that they have the credentials to do so, and thus ensure their seat in Parliament. In addition to Delgado and Lema, there is the Minister of Transportation, José Luis Falero, the Undersecretary of that portfolio, Juan José Olaizola, the Undersecretary of Health, José Luis Satdjián, and Deputy Armando Castaingdebat, among others. To this are added the mayors who cannot repeat and even, there is the place that the president occupied and that some understand corresponds to leaders of Canelones.
In 2019, the list for the Senate was headed by Lacalle Pou, followed by Delgado and Graciela Bianchi and Carlos Enciso, Vidalín and Carol Aviaga appeared. Lema, meanwhile, appeared in second place on the list of Deputies for Montevideo behind the current secretary of the Presidency. Olaizola, for his part, was the first substitute for Delgado in the lower house, Nicolás Martinelli as substitute for Lema and Falero as the first substitute for Lacalle in the Senate.
The other option that is on the table is to open two lists to the upper house, one headed by Delgado and the other by Lema, which would break the unity of the president’s sector. This option, which is handled above all in the circle of the Minister of Social Development, has the advantage that it allows more places at the top of the list but since they cannot accumulate by sublema, some deputies could be left out of Parliament.
At the same time, it would bring up the discussion of who gets to the number 404. This scenario also opens the possibility that both currents reach agreements with sectors outside of Aire Fresco. Although they are still far from making a decision, in recent weeks there have been different meetings between sectors to propose possible scenarios and, at the same time, everyone is listening to see what happens to Wilsonianism, dispersed after the death of Jorge Larrañaga.
As reported The Observer At the beginning of September, Lema received an approach from Herrerismo that did not go beyond a few informal talks.
In Aire Fresco, some leaders understand that the ideal scenario is to have a resolution regarding the lists to the Senate before the end of the year. However, others look more in the long term and understand that there is still a lot of water to run under the bridge and that even the internal elections could be the ones that leave the weight of each one in black on white.
In this Sunday’s congress, where Delgado will make the closing speech, the leaders of the main sector of the National Party from all over the country will give an image of unity and also of strength, while at the same time exchanging with an eye on 2024.
