The Fedesarrollo Economic and Social Research Center presented this Thursday – October 10 – the results of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index in Colombia (Ipec) for September, in which it was clear that the country’s economic situation has been a concern increasingly bigger among Colombians, to the point that it no longer scares them as much as security.
According to the figures presented by these researchers, for the ninth month of the year, the Ipec stood at 269, which is equivalent to a decrease of 54 points compared to August 2024 (323) and an increase of 39 points compared to the September record. of 2023 (230) and with this completes 62 months above the average observed between 2000 and 2019 (100).
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“The Uncertainty Index of Economic Policy in Colombia (IPEC) by Fedesarrollo captures the uncertainty of economic policy in Colombia on a monthly basis and with a sectoral and regional focus, through the count of words related to the situation in media news,” they explained.
This indicator is calculated based on media news captured by Ipec, which for September focused mainly on the topic of economic, social and geopolitical policy (50.0%), followed by economic activity (23.7% ) and others (11.8%); making it evident that Government announcements continue to attract most of the attention of public opinion.
Economic recession
“Compared to the previous month, the economic activity category showed the largest increase in participation (3 percentage points), while the economic, social and geopolitical policy sector was the one that showed the largest drop (1.7 percentage points). For its part, the economic activity sector showed the greatest increase compared to September 2023 (5.2 percentage points), while the category of insecurity showed the greatest contraction (5.9 percentage points),” they added in Fedesarrollo.
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Now, taking the data mentioned above as a reference, it can be inferred that at this moment Colombians are more concerned about what happens in political and economic matters than with security. Likewise, so far from 2024 to September, 54.6% of Ipec news focused on economic, social and geopolitical policy issues, followed by economic activity (14.6%) and others (11.2% ).
Finally, with respect to September 2023, the sectors of economic activity, economic, social and geopolitical policy and others were those that showed increases in participation (5.2, 2.3 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively). Although for now it seems that spirits have dropped, at least in September, Fedesarrollo figures warn that concern about the economy is at very high levels.
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It should not be overlooked that the share of news about economic activity grew significantly in September, reaching 23.7%, increasing by 3 percentage points compared to August, reflecting a greater focus on the country’s economic challenges, while news related to financial variables also increased their participation, which could signal greater attention to the financial sector and the associated risks.
In the same way that it has been above 200 points for 11 consecutive months, a situation that originates from the persistent concern in the different sectors about the economic and political environment of the country; that must be attended to, since Ultimately it also translates to investor confidence and economic dynamics of the local market.
